The market of the first cryptocurrency is once again demonstrating a classic consolidation scenario. Bitcoin has hit the psychologically important level of $80,000, and my analysis of on-chain data shows that this is not a coincidence, but the result of a struggle between profit-taking and institutional demand.

The key pressure factor is the return of almost all investor groups to the profit zone. The unrealized profit indicator currently looks as follows:

  • 21.1 — for long-term holders (LTH);
  • 13.4 — for short-term investors (STH);
  • 13.9 — for capital aged up to one month;
  • 5.3 — for the newest market participants.

These figures indicate a "healthy" market, but there is a flip side to the coin: the more holders are in profit, the stronger the temptation to lock in gains. This is exactly what we are observing at current levels.

SOPR Analysis: Who Is Selling More Actively?

The SOPR ratio at quotes around $80,000 rose to 1.4, indicating aggressive profit-taking by long-term holders. However, the indicator then corrected to 0.93, signaling a shift in direction: now short-term speculators are realizing their gains with greater benefit. This is a typical redistribution of positions before a decisive move.

Transitional Macro Zone and Futures Risk

The Delta-Thermo Market Multiple (DTMM) index is at 2.03 with a price of around $78,000. This is a classic "gray zone": bitcoin has left the accumulation area (1.5x) but has not yet gained sufficient momentum for a breakout into the expansion zone (2.5x). The global funding rate (0.0056) remains neutral, indicating no bias in either direction, while the negative Coinbase Premium Index points to weakness in spot demand from American buyers.

Special attention should be paid to the growth of open interest on Binance to $9.54 billion — a three-month high. The return of capital to the futures market increases volatility, but simultaneously raises the risk of cascading liquidations with any sharp price reversal.

My Forecast

A sustained breakout above $80,000 while maintaining ETF inflows will open a direct path to $88,000-90,000. However, losing support at $75,000 will trigger an accelerated correction, as short-term holders will instantly fall into losses. The market is now like a taut string: the slightest imbalance could lead to a sharp move in either direction. I believe that in the coming days, the behavior of the US spot market, rather than futures speculators, will be decisive.