A landmark shift is taking place in the currency market, changing the traditional perception of digital assets. Analysis of the dynamics shows: the 90-day correlation of bitcoin with the technology index Nasdaq 100 has dropped from 60% at the start of the year to 33%. At the same time, there is an explosive growth in the relationship between the first cryptocurrency and gold—from near-zero values to a confident 50%.
This trend clearly signals a reassessment of bitcoin's role in investment portfolios. The market is increasingly less likely to view it as a high-risk technology asset and more as a defensive tool capable of withstanding macroeconomic shocks.
Macroeconomic foundation for the "bet on debasement"
The key driver of this process is the unprecedented state of U.S. public finances. The country's national debt has exceeded the $40 trillion mark, while a growing budget deficit and rising Treasury yields create fertile ground for assets capable of protecting capital from the weakening of fiat currencies.
Under such conditions, bitcoin's fundamental characteristics come to the forefront. A limited supply of 21 million coins and a transparent issuance schedule independent of central bank decisions make it a natural liquid alternative to gold. This is no longer just a speculative story—it is a deliberate choice by institutional investors seeking refuge from fiscal and monetary expansion.
Fiscal dominance as a key risk
Significantly, other major market players hold a similar position. Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, links the simultaneous rise of gold and bitcoin to the actions of the U.S. Treasury, which is actively buying long-term bonds and increasing the issuance of short-term bills. This creates a "slippery slope" toward fiscal dominance and a potential loss of independence for the Federal Reserve.
Loose fiscal and monetary policy is an obvious negative factor for the dollar, but a powerful catalyst for gold and, as practice shows, for bitcoin.
My comment: The strengthening correlation of bitcoin with gold is not just a statistical anomaly, but a fundamental rethinking of the cryptocurrency's role in the global financial system. If this trend takes hold, we could witness the emergence of a new class of "digital defensive assets" that will challenge traditional hedging instruments. However, it should not be forgotten that correlation is an unstable value, and with a change in market conditions, it may shift back toward risk assets.