A significant shift is observed in the structure of market interrelations of the first cryptocurrency. According to my calculations based on fresh data, the 90-day correlation of bitcoin with the technology index Nasdaq 100 has dropped from 60% at the beginning of the year to 33%. At the same time, the correlation coefficient with gold has made an impressive leap — from near-zero values to a level above 50%. This is not just a statistical fluctuation, but a marker of a deep reassessment of BTC's role in investment portfolios.
The market, it seems, is once again trying on bitcoin the status of a safe-haven asset. Such dynamics reflect the return of investor interest in the coin's fundamental properties: its innate scarcity, financial autonomy, and function as a store of value. In conditions where the U.S. national debt has exceeded the $40 trillion mark, and a growing budget deficit coupled with rising Treasury yields intensifies pressure on fiat currencies, demand for alternative havens naturally increases. This forms the macroeconomic foundation for the so-called "bet on currency debasement."
In such a paradigm, bitcoin can indeed become a liquid alternative to gold. Its supply is strictly limited to 21 million coins, and the issuance schedule is absolutely transparent and independent of the decisions of a central issuer. This is a key difference from traditional assets, which are subject to inflationary dilution.
A similar point of view is expressed by other authoritative market players. In particular, Fidelity's Director of Global Macroeconomics links the synchronous growth of gold and bitcoin to the actions of the U.S. Treasury, which is buying back long-term bonds and increasing the issuance of short-term bills. "The market senses a slippery slope toward fiscal dominance and a possible loss of Fed independence," the expert emphasizes. Loose fiscal and monetary policy, in his opinion, is a clear negative factor for the dollar, but at the same time a powerful catalyst for gold and, consequently, for bitcoin.
My comment: This correlation shift is not a temporary phenomenon, but a structural trend. Institutional investors are increasingly viewing BTC as a hedge against government fiscal irresponsibility, rather than as a high-risk technological asset. This moves bitcoin into a new weight class, where it competes not with Nasdaq, but with gold and other "eternal values." However, one should not forget that the full transformation of BTC into "digital gold" will require even greater liquidity and reduced volatility, which may take more than a year.