A major step toward a public offering: Anthropic, one of the leaders in artificial intelligence development, is considering allowing its early investors and employees to sell shares as part of an upcoming IPO. This move notably sets the company apart from traditional schemes used by giants like SpaceX and signals Anthropic's desire for greater flexibility and liquidity for its key stakeholders.
The offering prospectus is expected to be published right after Labor Day, which falls on September 7 this year. In this document, the company will disclose financial metrics and a list of risks, marking a key moment for the market to assess its true value.
Departure from the SpaceX scenario: two types of shares
Classic large offerings typically include two types of shares: new ones that bring additional capital to the company, and sales of existing ones that allow early investors to lock in profits. SpaceX, for example, placed 555,555,555 new shares at $135 each in its June release, and underwriters later added another 83,333,333 shares. In total, 638.9 million shares hit the market, and the company's valuation reached approximately $86 billion, making it a record offering in history. All proceeds went to the company's accounts, and after trading began, Elon Musk retained about 82.4% of voting power.
Anthropic is clearly adopting part of this scheme, but with an important difference. The company is introducing shares with enhanced voting rights for founders, as Musk did, but the second half of the scenario changes: early investors will get the opportunity to sell their stakes. This means buyers will have to purchase more shares upfront, while insiders will be able to exit part of their capital at the offering price.
Lock-up and risks: playing ahead of the curve
A traditional lock-up prohibits insiders from selling shares after the offering, limiting supply in the market during the first months. The SpaceX example shows how this works: on August 6, 911.5 million insider shares became available for sale, double the June volume. Despite this, the share price rose 6.1% that day, indicating strong demand.
Anthropic, it seems, is taking a less risky path. The price and buyers are fixed in advance, and after the lock-up ends, such guarantees will no longer exist. The company is considering freezing shares for a longer period than usual. Insiders will receive part of their money earlier, but they will have to wait longer for the next chance to sell. Among those queuing up for the deal are major players. In May, Anthropic raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, with the round led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia. State money also entered the deal: Singapore's sovereign fund GIC became co-lead alongside Capital Group and Coatue. These investors are likely the ones exiting capital.
They will be selling at a noticeably higher price. In May, the company last disclosed revenue—its annual volume exceeded $47 billion—and the figures have not been updated since. Some questions should be answered by the offering prospectus, which will officially list risks, including AI threats to society. Anthropic's stake is already being valued on the crypto market as well: bets on it trade on pre-IPO platforms on the Solana network, where PreStocks holds 78% of turnover in OpenAI and Anthropic shares.
My view: The decision to allow insiders to sell shares is a dual signal. On one hand, it shows the company's confidence in its valuation; on the other, it creates pressure on the price after the offering. However, given such interest from major funds and steady revenue growth, this could become one of the most anticipated IPOs of the year, capable of reshaping the balance of power in the AI sector.