Based on the latest information I am tracking in closed industry circles, Anthropic, one of the leaders in artificial intelligence systems development, is preparing to go public as early as September this year. The key feature of the upcoming IPO is that management is considering allowing early investors and employees to sell their shares as part of the initial offering. This fundamentally distinguishes the future deal from the recent SpaceX scenario, where shareholders did not receive such a privilege.
A New Liquidity Model
Traditionally, large offerings are divided into two types: the issuance of new shares, which brings capital to the company itself, and the sale of existing securities, allowing early investors to lock in profits. SpaceX took the first path, placing 555,555,555 new shares at $135, then increasing the offering to 638.9 million shares, which allowed the company to raise about $86 billion and set a historical record. At the same time, not a single share from old holders hit the market, and Elon Musk retained control with 82.4% of the votes.
Anthropic, it seems, intends to go further. The company is introducing shares with enhanced voting rights for founders, but at the same time plans to give insiders the opportunity to sell part of their stakes. This means that early investors will be able to obtain liquidity at the offering price rather than waiting for the lock-up to expire. Buyers, in turn, will have to acquire more shares as part of the IPO, which could affect the dynamics of the first trading sessions.
Risk Management Strategy
It is important to note that this approach also carries certain risks. The lock-up, which usually blocks insider sales after the offering, will likely be extended in the case of Anthropic. This creates a dual structure: some investors get an exit now, but subsequent sales will be restricted for a longer period. Apparently, the company is trying to balance the interests of early shareholders and price stability on the secondary market.
Among those most likely to want to exit the capital are large funds that participated in the latest financing round. In May, Anthropic raised $65 billion at a valuation of $965 billion, with the round led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia. Government money was also involved in the deal: Singapore's sovereign fund GIC acted as co-lead investor alongside Capital Group and Coatue. It is these players who will likely be selling shares at a higher price than their average entry price.
The offering prospectus, which should be published shortly after Labor Day — September 7, will disclose not only financial indicators but also officially name the risks associated with artificial intelligence technologies for society. However, as I believe, the main intrigue will not be in this, but in the list of sellers and transaction volumes. It is these figures that will show the real valuation of Anthropic, not the one stated in the press.
My analysis: Allowing insiders to sell shares at the IPO is a bold move that could both strengthen confidence in the company and create pressure on the price in the first days of trading. In the long term, this signals the maturity of the AI market, where key players are beginning to diversify their risks rather than simply chasing hype.