Anthropic, one of the leaders in artificial intelligence development, is considering granting its early investors and employees the right to sell shares as part of an initial public offering (IPO). This decision would mark a notable departure from the traditional model recently used by SpaceX, where such an option for shareholders was absent.
Key details of the upcoming offering
The prospectus is expected to be published shortly after Labor Day, which falls on September 7. In this document, the company will disclose risks and financial metrics ahead of the actual share placement. This is an important step for the market, as it will allow investors to assess the real state of affairs at Anthropic.
Large offerings typically include two types of shares: new ones that bring additional capital to the company, and sales of existing ones that allow early investors to gain liquidity. SpaceX, for instance, sold only new shares. In June, they placed 555,555,555 shares at $135 each, and later underwriters added another 83,333,333 shares. In total, 638.9 million shares hit the market, valuing the company at approximately $86 billion — the largest offering in history. All proceeds went to the company itself, while Elon Musk retained about 82.4% of voting power.
Anthropic is adopting part of this scheme. The company is introducing shares with enhanced voting rights for founders — a tool Musk used to maintain control. However, the ability for insiders to sell shares changes the second half of the scheme: early investors will be able to lock in profits at the offering price, while buyers will have to purchase more shares upfront.
Risks and strategy
The lock-up, which temporarily prohibits insiders from selling shares after the offering, may be extended. This reduces the risk of a price collapse immediately after the IPO. The SpaceX example shows how the volume of tradable shares more than doubled overnight — from 4.9% to 11.8% of capital — which did not prevent a 6.1% price increase on the first day. Anthropic, it seems, is taking a less risky path: the price and buyers are fixed in advance, and after the lock-up expires, such guarantees will no longer exist.
Among those queuing up for the deal are major investors. In May, Anthropic raised $65 billion at a valuation of $965 billion. The round was led by Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia. State money is also involved: Singapore's sovereign fund GIC co-led the round alongside Capital Group and Coatue. These are likely the investors who will be exiting their positions.
They will be selling at a significantly higher price. In May, the company last disclosed its revenue — at that time, its annual volume exceeded $47 billion, and the figures have not been updated since. Some questions should be answered by the prospectus, which will likely officially name the risks of artificial intelligence to society among the threats to the company itself.
Anthropic's stake is already being valued on the crypto market as well. Bets on it are traded on pre-IPO token markets on the Solana network: the PreStocks platform holds 78% of the turnover in OpenAI and Anthropic securities. The regulatory documents will most likely reveal the names of sellers and transaction amounts. It is this list that will show what Anthropic is actually valued at.
My take: Allowing insiders to sell shares at the IPO is a powerful signal of confidence from management. They are ready for public valuation, which speaks to the maturity of the AI market. However, extending the lock-up could create pressure on the price in the medium term when the restriction expires. Investors should closely monitor the details of the prospectus, especially the structure of voting shares and the actual financial metrics.