A major step toward a public offering: Anthropic, the AI model developer, plans to go public as early as September. A key feature of the upcoming IPO is the opportunity for early investors and employees to sell their shares directly as part of the offering. This differs markedly from the approach recently used by SpaceX and signals a more flexible capital-raising strategy.
A departure from the SpaceX scenario
In June, SpaceX conducted the largest offering in history, selling 638.9 million new shares at $135 each, valuing the company at approximately $86 billion. However, Elon Musk and his team did not allow existing holders to sell a single share—all proceeds went to the company's accounts. Anthropic, it seems, is choosing a different path by introducing a secondary share offering for insiders.
This scheme involves two types of shares: new shares that bring additional capital to the company, and sales of existing shares, allowing early investors to lock in profits. At the same time, Anthropic is introducing shares with enhanced voting rights for founders, similar to the tool Musk uses to control SpaceX.
Lock-up: more patience, less risk
Insider share sales will be restricted by an extended lock-up period. This is a sensible move: in the case of SpaceX, when the lock-up expired, the volume of tradable shares grew from 4.9% to 11.8% of capital overnight, yet the price still rose by 6.1%. By fixing the price and buyers in advance, Anthropic reduces post-listing volatility, although investors will have to wait longer than usual for the next exit window.
Who is selling and why
Among those who may exit their positions are major players: Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC, Capital Group, and Coatue, which participated in the May round at $65 billion with a valuation of $965 billion. The sale is expected to occur at a price significantly above previous rounds. The prospectus, which will appear after Labor Day (September 7), will disclose risks and financial metrics, as well as the names of sellers and transaction amounts.
My take: Anthropic's decision to give insiders an exit at the IPO is a dual signal. On one hand, it is a sign of maturity and confidence in the valuation; on the other, it is an attempt to avoid pressure on the stock after the lock-up expires. Against the backdrop of active pre-IPO token trading on Solana, where the PreStocks platform controls 78% of turnover in OpenAI and Anthropic shares, the market is clearly eagerly awaiting this listing. However, investors should remember: the high valuation of $965 billion is no longer just a bet on technology, but a bet on Anthropic's ability to monetize AI on a scale we have not yet seen.