The launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, raises many questions about its impact on the banking sector. However, in my assessment, a significant portion of concerns regarding an outflow of liquidity from credit institutions has no solid foundation, at least at the initial stage.
First Deputy President — Chairman of the Management Board of VTB Dmitry Pianov, during a conversation with journalists, gave a clear signal: the bank does not expect pressure on liquidity. His reasoning is simple and logical: the volume of transfers in the new form of the national currency will be limited at the start. This is explained by the fact that the digital ruble is an absolutely new instrument for both individuals and legal entities, and its mass adoption will take time.
Why panic is premature
From September 1, large retail chains with annual revenue exceeding 120 million rubles will be required to accept payments in digital rubles. Later, this requirement will extend to smaller sellers. However, as I have repeatedly noted in my analytical reviews, hasty conclusions about the "flight" of funds from banks would be a mistake. The expansion of the circle of participants will be gradual, which automatically curbs the speed of money flow between currency forms. In essence, the sector gets the necessary breathing room for adaptation, not a shock blow.
Technically, all twelve systemically important banks, which account for more than 80% of the payment market, are ready for the launch. From the first day of autumn, they will be able to open digital ruble accounts for clients and conduct transactions on them. The regulator has also introduced a limit on replenishing a wallet with 300,000 rubles per month — this is quite sufficient for an ordinary user, but not enough to create a serious imbalance in the banking system.
What else is important to know
Accounts and transactions with the new form of currency will be protected by banking secrecy, and funds cannot be frozen since they belong to the wallet owner. Goznak also does not expect a significant impact on the structure of cash circulation: the digital ruble will rather complement banknotes than replace them, which implies only a transfer of part of settlements between forms of money.
My conclusion: VTB demonstrates a balanced approach, and I share it. At the initial stage, the digital ruble is more of an experiment and a testing ground than a tool capable of destabilizing banking liquidity. Real risks may arise only with an acceleration of implementation pace and the lifting of limits, but until that moment, according to my forecasts, years will pass.