With the launch of the digital ruble on September 1, the market is holding its breath: could the new instrument become a catalyst for an outflow of funds from the banking system? My analysis shows that these concerns are most likely premature. Key players, including VTB, are giving cautious but encouraging forecasts.
Why VTB does not expect an outflow of funds
First Deputy President and Chairman of VTB's Management Board, Dmitry Pianov, stated directly that the bank sees no risks to sector liquidity. His reasoning is simple and logical: at the initial stage, transfers in digital currency will be limited in volume. This is not a mass shift, but rather a targeted introduction to the new instrument for both individuals and legal entities.
"No, we do not expect it. Transfers in digital rubles at the first stage will be limited in volume; it is a new instrument for individuals and legal entities," Pianov emphasized.
Such caution is explained by the very implementation process. From September 1, large retail chains with annual revenue exceeding 120 million rubles are required to start accepting payments in digital rubles. Later, the requirement will extend to smaller sellers as well. The gradual expansion of participants curbs the speed of money flow between currency forms. While only the first users are exploring the new instrument, there is no noticeable pressure on the banks' resource base, and the sector gains time to adapt.
What is known about the digital ruble launch
Technically, all twelve systemically important banks in the country, which account for more than 80% of the payment market, are ready for the start. From the first day of autumn, they will be able to open digital ruble accounts for clients and conduct transactions on them. Nine credit institutions recognized as significant in the payment services market must also provide access.
The regulator has limited wallet top-ups to 300,000 rubles per month, with the threshold applying only to incoming transfers from a regular non-cash account. Alla Bakina, Director of the Central Bank's National Payment System Department, explained that such an amount is quite sufficient for an ordinary user. Within the platform itself, funds can be managed freely.
Accounts and transactions with the new form of currency are protected by banking secrecy. Zulfiya Kakhrumanova, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia, emphasized that spending data remains between the client and their bank, and the funds themselves cannot be frozen since they belong to the wallet owner.
The digital ruble logo in banking apps will be bright red—a shade the Central Bank calls "dopamine." A button with this icon will appear on the main screen, and through it, the client will connect to the platform.
The launch will have almost no impact on the structure of cash circulation, according to Goznak. Deputy General Director of the company, Georgy Kornilov, does not expect a significant effect in the coming years: the new form of currency complements banknotes rather than displacing them, so it is only a matter of shifting part of the settlements between forms of money.
My conclusion: the market is overestimating the risks of the digital ruble. The introduction of limits and the phased nature of the launch create a "safety cushion" for banking liquidity. In the long term, the digital ruble will become not a threat, but a tool for optimizing the payment infrastructure, though this will take more than a year.