Strategy (MSTR) shares have once again found themselves at the center of a heated debate between two polarizing camps of investors. The rise in quotes to $137.4 amid a confident surge of bitcoin above $80,000 only added fuel to the fire. While some see this as confirmation of the genius of Michael Saylor's strategy, others see signs of an imminent collapse.
Dividend trap or "death spiral"?
My analysis shows that the criticism from Peter Schiff, a longtime skeptic of the first cryptocurrency, is not without a grain of truth. He points to the structural vulnerability of the Strategy model: dividend payments on preferred shares are financed through the issuance of new securities, not operating profit. This creates a vicious cycle that, if BTC falls, could turn into a "death spiral," where the stock price collapses faster than bitcoin itself.
Schiff insists that the current surge in quotes is not investor faith in the strategy, but a technical short squeeze. Traders who bet on a decline were forced to close positions amid the rally, which mechanically drove the price up. In his interpretation, this is not a bullish signal, but merely a postponement of the inevitable.
Saylor's response: a bull on a bull
Michael Saylor, for his part, responded with his characteristic irony. On social media, he published an AI-generated video where he rides a bull somewhere in Spain, demonstrating absolute confidence in his rightness. This is not just a PR stunt, but a clear message to the market: the company has no intention of deviating from its chosen course of accumulating bitcoin.
Notably, experts previously linked the rise in MSTR shares to a decline in panic sentiment. Investors stopped fearing that the company would have to sell off its BTC reserves to cover obligations. However, as the polarizing assessments show, the question of the model's sustainability remains open.
My verdict: The truth, as always, lies somewhere in between. The Strategy model is a high-risk leverage that multiplies bitcoin's movement in both directions. As long as BTC rises, Saylor looks like a genius. But if the market turns, the dividend burden could prove fatal. The only question is how long-term the current bullish trend will be. I would not advise investors to view the rise in MSTR as a "safe" alternative to direct bitcoin investments—it is a bet with double leverage on its growth.