September opens for bitcoin on a historically strong note, yet there is no consensus among analysts. After the August momentum that caught many off guard, the market has approached a crossroads: continue the bullish march or transition to a cooling phase. The range of forecasts for the month ahead is impressive—from a correction to $70,000 to an attempt to hold near the psychological mark of $100,000.
The key intrigue of September is whether the leading cryptocurrency can sustain its gained pace or give up some of its conquered positions. There are many factors influencing the trajectory: from Federal Reserve policy and the U.S. midterm elections to seasonality and the behavior of long-term holders.
Oleg Reshetnikov: scenarios from $70,000 to $100,000
Stock market expert at "BCS World of Investments" Oleg Reshetnikov notes that almost all summer bitcoin and Ethereum spent in the usual low-volatility sideways trend. However, in the second decade of August, the market began to noticeably revive. In his assessment, several factors at once are aligning in favor of digital assets.
Among them are the approach of the final stages of the midterm elections and statements made about the prospects of the crypto industry in the U.S., the scaling up of purchases of long-term Treasury bonds as a play on currency devaluation, as well as the approach to a seasonally strong fourth quarter from a low base. He also considers the return of institutional investors after the vacation period and the shift of long-term BTC holders to buying as an additional driver, which traditionally opens a new accumulation cycle.
However, Reshetnikov also highlights a number of uncertainties. For the crypto market, the outcome of the elections in the context of advancing the CLARITY Act is especially important, along with Fed policy and the first results of Kevin Warsh's working groups in September, as well as the conflict in the Middle East, which could pressure the U.S. market through oil prices.
In the base scenario, the expert allows for BTC growth in September to $88,000. In a negative development—escalation in the Middle East, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY in the vote on September 15—the largest cryptocurrency could decline to $70,000–72,000. A positive scenario with agreements on the region, a neutral or softer Fed, and a successful vote could take the price closer to $100,000.
Reshetnikov separately assessed Ethereum. According to him, the second cryptocurrency will be able to outpace bitcoin in percentage terms only under a positive scenario: in the base case, ETH reaches $2,700–2,750, in a negative case it drops to $2,000–2,100, and in a positive case—to $3,300.
Nikolay Dudchenko: growth upon holding above $80,000
Analyst at FG "Finam" Nikolay Dudchenko explained that in August the price rose noticeably amid the U.S. Treasury's announcement of increased Treasury buybacks and the covering of short positions after the breakout to the upside. He allows for continued growth in September, but with an important caveat.
In his assessment, further upward movement is possible only if buyers manage to break above $80,000 and, crucially, hold above that level. With such a development, the month's target becomes the range of $85,000–95,000.
Dudchenko emphasized that he maintains a moderately optimistic view on bitcoin. According to him, a repeat of the price reaching recent all-time highs in the medium term looks quite possible.
Sergey Gurdyumov: correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone
Investor and author of Qwerty Analytics Sergey Gurdyumov, after the momentum growth of nearly 30% in August that surprised many, expects a BTC correction in September. At the same time, he does not rule out the opposite development of events.
According to him, the chart strongly resembles January 2023, so the option of a pullback-free rise over some time should not be dismissed either. Still, from a trading perspective, the expert considers a decline more logical.
Gurdyumov expects a correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance is located—it should act as support. In his assessment, with such aggressive growth, one should not expect a deep and fast pullback. Most likely, the movement will stretch over a whole month with a gradual decline. Such a scenario, according to him, would confirm the appropriate price momentum and create reasons to look for buy opportunities.
My view: The range of forecasts reflects the real uncertainty of the moment. The market is in a zone where the technical picture requires holding, while the macroeconomic backdrop remains ambiguous. September is historically capricious, but this year the bulls have significant trump cards—from institutional demand to the political agenda. The key level of $80,000 will be the litmus test: a confident breakout will open the road to new highs, while losing $72,000 will return the market to prolonged consolidation.