After the August surge that caught many participants off guard, Bitcoin enters September on a historically strong stretch for the market. However, there is no consensus among experts: forecasts for the coming weeks range from a deep correction to an ambitious attempt to hold near the psychological $100,000 mark. The key intrigue of the month is whether the leading cryptocurrency can sustain its momentum or whether the market faces an inevitable pullback.
Analysts agree that the movement will be driven by several factors at once: Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. midterm elections, seasonality, and the behavior of long-term holders. At the same time, each expert sees their own logic in how events unfold, and the range of targets reflects the full complexity of the current landscape.
Oleg Reshetnikov: scenarios from $70,000 to $100,000
Stock market expert Oleg Reshetnikov notes that for almost the entire summer, Bitcoin and Ethereum spent time in the usual low-volatility sideways range. However, in the second ten days of August, the market began to noticeably revive. In his assessment, several factors are aligning in favor of digital assets: the approach of the final stages of the U.S. election race, statements about the prospects of the crypto industry, increased purchases of long-term Treasury bonds as a play on currency devaluation, as well as the approach of a seasonally strong fourth quarter from a low base.
An additional driver, according to Reshetnikov, will be the return of institutional investors after the vacation period and the shift of long-term BTC holders toward accumulation, which traditionally opens a new growth cycle. At the same time, he highlights a number of uncertainties: for the crypto market, the outcome of the vote on the CLARITY Act bill, scheduled for September 15, is especially important, as is geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which could exert pressure through oil prices.
In the base scenario, the expert allows for BTC to rise to $88,000. In a negative development — escalation of the conflict, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY — the largest cryptocurrency could decline to $70,000–72,000. An optimistic scenario with regional agreements, a neutral or softer regulator stance, and a successful vote could push the price closer to $100,000. As for Ethereum, the second cryptocurrency will only be able to outperform Bitcoin in percentage terms under a positive outcome: in the base scenario, ETH will reach $2,700–2,750, in a negative one it will fall to $2,000–2,100, and in a positive one it will rise to $3,300.
Nikolay Dudchenko: growth upon holding above $80,000
Analyst Nikolay Dudchenko draws attention to the fact that the August rally was triggered by the U.S. Treasury Department's announcement of increased Treasury buybacks and the covering of short positions after an upside breakout. He allows for continued growth in September, but with an important caveat: upward movement is only possible if buyers manage to break above $80,000 and, crucially, hold above that level. Under such a development, the month's target becomes the $85,000–95,000 range. Dudchenko maintains a moderately optimistic view and considers revisiting recent all-time highs in the medium term quite realistic.
Sergey Gurdyumov: correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone
Investor and author of Qwerty Analytics Sergey Gurdyumov, after the nearly 30% impulsive rally in August that surprised many, expects a BTC correction in September, although he does not rule out the opposite scenario. He notes that the chart strongly resembles January 2023, so the option of continued growth without a pullback for some time cannot be dismissed either. However, from a trading perspective, he considers a decline more logical.
Gurdyumov forecasts a correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance is located, which should act as support. In his assessment, with such aggressive growth, one should not expect a deep and fast pullback: the movement will likely stretch over the entire month with a gradual decline. Such a scenario would confirm a suitable entry point for positions and create reasons to look for buy opportunities.
My view on the situation
September is traditionally considered a capricious month for risk assets, and the current picture is no exception. Nevertheless, structural factors — institutional return, accumulation by long-term holders, and the macroeconomic backdrop — lay the groundwork for a bullish scenario. However, volatility tied to political events in the U.S. could introduce serious adjustments. I recommend traders remain flexible and not rely on a single scenario: the market is clearly ready for sharp moves in both directions.