The cryptocurrency market enters September after a powerful August rally, and this creates a unique situation of uncertainty. On one hand, we see a historically strong fundamental backdrop; on the other, analysts are showing a rare divergence of opinions regarding the near-term trajectory of bitcoin. The fork in the road is obvious: either the leading cryptocurrency will continue its assault on the psychological level of $100,000, or we face a correction toward the $70,000 zone.
Base scenario: growth to $88,000 with potential up to $100,000
For almost the entire summer, bitcoin and Ethereum spent time in the usual low-volatility sideways range, but in the second decade of August, the market began to noticeably come alive. Several factors are aligning in favor of digital assets: the approach of the final stages of the U.S. election race, accompanied by statements about the prospects of the crypto industry, increased purchases of long-term Treasury bonds as a play on currency devaluation, as well as the approach to a seasonally strong fourth quarter from a low base.
An additional driver could be the return of institutional investors after the vacation period and the transition of long-term BTC holders to an accumulation phase, which traditionally opens a new growth cycle. However, a number of uncertainties remain: the election outcome in the context of advancing the CLARITY Act, Fed policy, the first results of Kevin Warsh's working groups, as well as the conflict in the Middle East, which could pressure the market through oil prices.
In the base scenario, I expect BTC to rise to $88,000. In a negative development—escalation in the Middle East, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY in the September 15 vote—the largest cryptocurrency could decline to $70,000–72,000. A positive scenario with regional agreements, a neutral or softer Fed, and a successful vote could push the price closer to $100,000.
Alternative view: holding above $80,000 as a key signal
The August rally was impressive against the backdrop of the U.S. Treasury's announcement of increased Treasury bond buybacks and the covering of short positions after the upside breakout. Continued growth in September is possible, but with an important caveat: buyers need to move above $80,000 and, crucially, hold above that level. Under such a development, the month's target becomes the $85,000–95,000 range.
Overall, a moderately optimistic view of bitcoin remains. Retesting recent all-time highs in the medium term looks quite realistic, especially given seasonal factors and expectations of monetary policy easing.
Conservative scenario: correction toward the $72,500–67,000 zone
After an impulsive rally of nearly 30% in August, which surprised many, a correction is logically expected. The chart strongly resembles January 2023, so the option of sustained growth without a pullback cannot be completely ruled out, but from a trading perspective, a decline looks more likely.
I expect a correction toward the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance is located—it should act as support. With such aggressive growth, a deep and fast pullback should not be expected: the move will more likely stretch across the entire month with a gradual decline. Such a scenario would confirm a suitable entry point and create reasons to look for buy trades.
My conclusion: September will be a month of testing the strength of the bullish trend. The key level is $80,000: holding above it opens the path to $95,000–100,000, while losing this level could send the price into a deep correction. Investors should be prepared for heightened volatility and closely monitor macroeconomic signals, especially Fed actions and political events in the U.S.