After the August rally, the market enters September on a historically strong stretch for digital assets. However, there is no consensus on Bitcoin's trajectory: analysts are considering scenarios ranging from a deep correction to $70,000 to an attempt to hold near the psychological level of $100,000. This range of forecasts reflects the month's main intrigue—whether the leading cryptocurrency can sustain its momentum or give back some of its gains.
The key drivers that will determine price movement lie in macroeconomics and politics. These include upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, the approach of the final stages of the U.S. presidential race, and the seasonal factor that traditionally favors the fourth quarter. Additionally, the market is influenced by the behavior of long-term holders, who after a summer pause are increasingly shifting toward accumulation.
Oleg Reshetnikov: wide corridor from $70,000 to $100,000
Oleg Reshetnikov, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, notes that Bitcoin and Ethereum spent almost the entire summer in a low-volatility sideways trend. The revival began only in the second decade of August, when several factors aligned in favor of the market: the approaching elections, statements about the prospects of the crypto industry in the U.S., rising purchases of long-term Treasury bonds, and the approach of a seasonally strong fourth quarter from a low base.
In the base scenario, the analyst allows for BTC to rise to $88,000. In a negative scenario—escalation in the Middle East, hawkish Fed rhetoric, or failure of the CLARITY Act vote on September 15—the price could fall to $70,000–72,000. The optimistic scenario assumes a hold above $100,000 if geopolitical tensions ease and the regulatory agenda gains positive momentum.
Nikolai Dudchenko: growth only after a firm hold above $80,000
Nikolai Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Financial Group, links the August growth to the U.S. Treasury Department's announcement of increased Treasury buybacks and the covering of short positions. Further upward movement, in his view, is possible only with buyers confidently holding above the $80,000 level. In that case, the month's target becomes the $85,000–95,000 range. The expert maintains moderate optimism and considers a retest of historical highs in the medium term quite realistic.
Sergei Gurdyumov: correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone
Investor and author of Qwerty Analytics Sergei Gurdyumov, after an impulsive growth of nearly 30% in August, expects a correction. He draws attention to the similarity of the current chart to January 2023, when a sharp move was followed by gradual consolidation. In his assessment, the price could correct to the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance is located, which will act as support. At the same time, the analyst does not rule out a continuation of the rally without a pullback, although he considers such a scenario less likely.
My view: the market is at a bifurcation point where the technical picture and the macroeconomic backdrop are in conflict. On one hand, the structural trend remains upward and institutional interest is high. On the other, overheating after the August surge and uncertainty around regulation create grounds for a correction. The optimal strategy for September is not to chase the price but to build entry levels considering both scenarios, using volatility as an opportunity rather than a threat.