August was a triumphant month for Ethereum, which not only outpaced Bitcoin in terms of momentum but also demonstrated impressive growth of nearly 40%. At one point, the price of ETH approached the $2600 mark, where a significant monthly imbalance formed — a zone to which the market often returns after sharp movements. However, analysts are now divided in their opinions: some forecast a continuation of the rally toward $2800, while others expect a correction into the $2250–1930 range.
At the time of analysis, ETH is trading near $2463, with the key resistance level at $2470. The further trajectory of movement largely depends on this threshold — either the uptrend will gain new momentum, or the market will enter a correction phase.
Macroeconomic backdrop: Fed policy as a driver
I attribute the recent surge in Ethereum's price to changes in the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. These same factors previously pushed Bitcoin higher as well. The local obstacle for bulls remains the $2470 level — if buyers can overcome it, the next target will be $2800. In the long term, positive asymmetry persists: the trend remains upward, and under the base scenario, growth may continue.
Technical analysis: indicators signal overheating
On the daily ETH/USD chart, oscillators indicate overbought conditions after a sharp upward surge. The stochastic is in the overbought zone with values of 85.31 and 88.49, while the RSI has risen to 69.15–73.19 — close to the upper boundary, beyond which cooling typically follows. This aligns with the expectations of several experts: after nearly 40% growth, the market may need a pause.
The key range remains $2400–2700. Holding within it preserves the chances of continued upward movement, while a decline would strengthen the scenario of a deeper correction. At the same time, maintaining the price above $2470 would confirm buyer strength and open the path to higher levels.
My view: The market is in a phase of uncertainty, and the technical picture points to a high probability of consolidation or a pullback. However, given the macroeconomic backdrop and ETH's relative strength against BTC, any corrections should be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate positions rather than a signal to exit the market.