The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is ending August with an impressive result, outpacing bitcoin. Over the month, ETH gained about 40%, approaching the monthly imbalance around $2600. However, it is here that the market faces a critical crossroads: some analysts see potential for a continued rally to $2800, while others expect a correction to $2250–1930.
At the time of analysis, the ETH price is holding near the $2463 mark, while key resistance is located at $2470. The further trajectory depends on this level: either the uptrend will continue, or the market will enter a cooling phase.
The macroeconomic backdrop plays into buyers' hands
In my analysis, the current rise of ether is directly linked to changes in the quantitative easing program and the weakening of the US dollar. These same factors previously provided support for bitcoin as well. The local obstacle for optimists remains the $2470 zone—if buyers can overcome it, the path to $2800 will be open. In the long term, the base asymmetry persists: the trend remains upward, and the base scenario assumes continued growth.
Contrarian view: stops collected, correction inevitable
However, not all market participants share the optimism. In August, ETH demonstrated strength, surpassing bitcoin, and during the move collected stop orders from short sellers, reaching the monthly imbalance. A decline is expected from exactly this point. Nevertheless, even within the correction scenario, continued growth within the same monthly imbalance—from $2450 to $2780—is allowed.
The dynamics of the ETH/BTC pair also draw attention: since May 2025, ether has been moving more confidently than the senior cryptocurrency, indicating the altcoin's structural strength. In my estimates, the correction in ETH will be less deep than in BTC. The target downside zone is $2250–1930, where the inverted weekly imbalance is located. This area will become not only support but also an attractive point for accumulating long positions.
Technical indicators signal overheating
On the daily ETH/USD chart, oscillators indicate overbought conditions after a sharp surge. The stochastic is in the overbought zone with values of 85.31 and 88.49, while RSI has risen to 69.15–73.19—close to the upper boundary, beyond which cooling typically follows. This picture aligns with expectations of a correction among several experts: after nearly 40% growth, the market may need a pause.
The key range remains $2400–2700. Holding within it preserves chances for continued upside, while a breakdown to the downside would strengthen the scenario of a deeper decline. In any case, I recommend accumulating spot positions on dips to avoid being left without assets in the event of an upward reversal.
My verdict: the August momentum is impressive, but the technical picture and market psychology indicate a high probability of consolidation before the next push. A skilled trader uses the correction not as a reason for panic but as an opportunity to enter longs at more attractive prices.