The market for the leading cryptocurrency is closing August with a powerful surge, and September opens on a historically strong stretch for digital assets. However, analysts are divided on the near-term trajectory: forecasts range from a deep correction to $70,000 to an ambitious attempt to hold near the psychological $100,000 mark. This divergence reflects the month's main intrigue—whether Bitcoin can sustain its momentum or will be forced to give up some of its gains.
Key Drivers and Risks
Price movement in the coming weeks will be shaped by several factors at once. These include Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. midterm elections, seasonality, and the behavior of long-term holders. Particular attention should be paid to institutional re-entry after the summer lull—this traditionally opens a new accumulation cycle. However, uncertainty is introduced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could pressure U.S. markets through oil prices, as well as the fate of the CLARITY Act and the initial results of Kevin Warsh's working groups.
Three Scenarios from Experts
Oleg Reshetnikov from "BCS World of Investments" highlights baseline, negative, and positive scenarios. In the baseline case, he expects growth to $88,000. In a negative development (escalation of conflict, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of the September 15 vote), the price could fall to the $70,000–72,000 zone. A positive scenario, implying de-escalation and loose monetary policy, opens the path to $100,000. For Ethereum, his estimates are as follows: $2,700–2,750 in the baseline case, $2,000–2,100 in a negative scenario, and $3,300 in an optimistic outlook.
Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at FG "Finam," believes that continued growth is possible only with a confident hold above $80,000. In that case, the month's target becomes the $85,000–95,000 range. He maintains a moderately optimistic view, allowing for a retest of historical highs in the medium term.
Sergei Gurdiumov from Qwerty Analytics, on the other hand, expects a correction after the impulsive nearly 30% rally. He forecasts a decline to the $72,500–67,000 zone, where an inverted monthly imbalance is located, which should act as support. According to him, a deep and rapid pullback should not be expected—the move will stretch over a month with a gradual decline, creating attractive entry points for buyers.
My conclusion: The market is at a bifurcation point where the technical picture and the macroeconomic backdrop are in conflict. The most likely scenario appears to be consolidation with heightened volatility ahead of key events. Investors should be prepared for both directions and not succumb to euphoria from the August rally—September may bring surprises.