After a confident August rally, bitcoin enters September on a historically strong stretch for the market. However, there is no consensus on the near-term trajectory: forecasts range from a correction to $70,000 to an attempt to storm the psychologically important $100,000 level. This spread reflects the month's main intrigue—whether the leading cryptocurrency can sustain its momentum or give back some of its gains.
Factors shaping September's movement
The key drivers influencing the market lie in macroeconomics and geopolitics. These include Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. midterm elections, and seasonality—the fourth quarter is traditionally strong for digital assets. Additionally, the behavior of long-term holders and the return of institutional players after the vacation period could serve as an additional catalyst. A shift by large investors from accumulation to active buying often opens a new growth cycle.
At the same time, several uncertainties remain. Particular attention should be paid to the vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15, the first results from Kevin Warsh's working groups, and escalation in the Middle East, which could exert pressure through oil prices.
Three views on September
Oleg Reshetnikov (BCS World of Investments) expects BTC to rise to $88,000 in his base scenario. In a negative scenario—escalation of the conflict, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY—a decline to $70,000–72,000 is possible. A positive scenario with peace agreements and loose monetary policy could drive the price to $100,000. As for Ethereum, under favorable conditions ETH could reach $3,300, in the base case $2,700–2,750, and in a negative scenario fall to $2,000–2,100.
Nikolai Dudchenko (Finam Group) notes that August's growth was supported by U.S. Treasury statements about buying back Treasury bonds and the covering of short positions. However, further upside is only possible with a confident close above $80,000. In that case, the month's target becomes the $85,000–95,000 range. The analyst maintains a moderately optimistic view, allowing for a retest of historical highs in the medium term.
Sergei Gurdiumov (Qwerty Analytics) expects a correction after August's impressive nearly 30% momentum. In his view, the chart strongly resembles January 2023, and a gradual decline toward the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance sits, looks more logical. Such a scenario, he believes, would create attractive entry points for buyers.
My view: despite the optimism, the market is overheated after the sharp surge, and a correction looks more likely. However, the depth of the pullback will depend on macroeconomic news. If the Fed maintains a dovish tone and the geopolitical situation does not deteriorate, bitcoin could hold the key support at $72,000 and continue moving toward new highs in the fourth quarter. Investors should be prepared for heightened volatility and use potential dips to build positions.