After August's momentum, bitcoin enters September on a historically strong stretch for the market. However, analysts are divided on the near-term trajectory: forecasts range from a correction to $70,000 to an attempt to hold near $100,000. This spread reflects the month's main intrigue—whether the leading cryptocurrency can sustain its recent pace or give back some of its gains.
The key drivers shaping expectations lie in macroeconomics and politics. This includes Federal Reserve actions, the U.S. midterm elections, seasonality, and the behavior of long-term holders. Let's examine three scenarios, each with its own logic and price targets.
Oleg Reshetnikov: scenarios from $70,000 to $100,000
Oleg Reshetnikov, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, notes that bitcoin and Ethereum spent most of the summer in a familiar low-volatility sideways range. However, in the second ten days of August, the market began to noticeably pick up. In his assessment, several factors are aligning in favor of digital assets.
Among them are the approach of the final stages of the midterm elections and statements about the prospects of the crypto industry in the U.S., the buildup of long-term bond purchases as a play on currency devaluation, and the approach of a seasonally strong fourth quarter from a low base. He also considers the return of institutional investors after the vacation period and the shift of long-term BTC holders to buying as an additional driver, which traditionally opens a new accumulation cycle.
Reshetnikov also highlights a number of uncertainties. For the crypto market, the election outcome is especially important in the context of advancing the CLARITY Act, Fed policy, and the first results of Kevin Warsh's working groups in September, as well as the conflict in the Middle East, which could pressure the U.S. market through oil prices.
In the base scenario, the expert allows for BTC to rise to $88,000 in September. In a negative development—escalation in the Middle East, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY in the vote on September 15—the largest cryptocurrency could decline to $70,000–72,000. A positive scenario with regional agreements, a neutral or softer Fed, and a successful vote could push the price closer to $100,000.
Reshetnikov also assessed Ethereum separately. According to him, the second cryptocurrency can outperform bitcoin in percentage terms only under a positive scenario: in the base case, ETH reaches $2,700–2,750, in a negative case it falls to $2,000–2,100, and in a positive case it moves to $3,300.
Nikolay Dudchenko: growth if it holds above $80,000
Nikolay Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Group, explained that in August the price rose noticeably amid the U.S. Treasury's announcement of increased Treasury bond buybacks and the covering of short positions after an upside breakout. He allows for continued growth in September, but with an important caveat.
In his assessment, further upward movement is possible only if buyers manage to move above $80,000 and, crucially, hold above that level. Under such a development, the month's target becomes the range of $85,000–95,000.
Dudchenko emphasizes that he maintains a moderately optimistic view on bitcoin. According to him, a repeat test of recent all-time highs in the medium term looks quite possible.
Sergey Gurdyumov: correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone
Investor and author of Qwerty Analytics Sergey Gurdyumov, after the unexpected for many impulsive growth of nearly 30% in August, expects a BTC correction in September. At the same time, he does not rule out the opposite development.
According to him, the chart strongly resembles January 2023, so the option of a no-pullback rally for some time cannot be dismissed. However, from a trading perspective, the expert considers a decline more logical.
Gurdyumov expects a correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance is located—it should act as support. In his assessment, with such aggressive growth, one should not expect a deep and fast pullback. Most likely, the move will stretch over a full month with a gradual decline. Such a scenario, he says, would confirm the price's appropriate level and create reasons to look for buying opportunities.
My view: The spread of forecasts reflects real uncertainty. Technically, August's bullish momentum is not yet exhausted, but the macroeconomic backdrop remains fragile. I see $80,000 as the key level for confirming the trend: holding above it opens the path to all-time highs, while losing this level increases the risks of a correction to the $70,000–72,000 zone. Investors should be prepared for heightened volatility ahead of Fed meetings and Congressional votes.