The black gold market enters the autumn season with high volatility: Brent crude recently approached the $95 mark, after which profit-taking began. The only question is whether the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East can sustain prices in an upward trend or whether we will see a correction to more comfortable levels. My analysis shows that there is no single scenario—everything depends on the escalation or de-escalation of the conflict.
BCS: rise to $96 remains in effect
Stock market expert Mikhail Zeltser from "BCS World of Investments" notes that the August momentum could smoothly carry over into September if the parties do not reach a reconciliation. He views the escalation factor as a key driver for further movement. Technically, in his assessment, the $96 level is quite achievable at the start of autumn, but in the event of de-escalation, support will form at the round level of $90.
Alexandrov: baseline scenario—fluctuations around $90
Head of analytical research Dmitry Alexandrov is less optimistic. He does not expect sharp shifts, although he acknowledges that dramatic events, for example around Iran, could occur any day. Markets have already grown accustomed to such a backdrop, and inventories in consumer countries allow for calmly compensating for supply deficits for another couple of months. Therefore, his baseline forecast is fluctuations within ±10–15% of current values, that is, roughly around $90 per barrel.
"Finam": range of $80–90 until the end of the quarter
Nikolay Dudchenko from FG "Finam" holds a more conservative view: by the end of Q3, the price will remain in the $80–90 corridor. He notes that the United States has shifted to a strategy of "war of attrition," exerting maximum economic pressure on Iran. This somewhat reduces the likelihood of an escalation, but does not rule it out—Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels outside the Persian Gulf. At the same time, reserves for smoothing the situation on global markets remain sufficient for now, which keeps prices from more drastic movements.
My comment: From a macroeconomic perspective, the current balance of supply and demand remains fragile. Any disruption in supplies from the region could instantly push prices above $100, but for now the market is pricing in a risk premium rather than an actual deficit. For traders, this means that in autumn one should be prepared for sharp movements in both directions, rather than a trend rally.