While the market was spellbound watching Bitcoin, Ethereum quietly did its job and finished August with an impressive result — a gain of nearly 40%. This is the best performance among the "heavyweights" of the crypto market. ETH approached the $2600 mark, where a serious test awaits it. This level is interesting not only as a psychological barrier, but also as a zone where the price previously dropped sharply, leaving behind an unfilled gap. Based on experience, the market often returns to such "unfilled tails" before continuing its move.
At the time of analysis, ETH is trading around $2463, with the nearest resistance at $2470. This level is currently acting as a dividing line: a confident breakout will open a direct path to targets around $2800, while failure could trigger a wave of profit-taking.
The Macro Factor: A Soft Landing for the Dollar
In my analysis, I always take the macroeconomic backdrop into account, and here it is playing in favor of buyers. ETH's rise is largely fueled by expectations of a softening in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a corresponding weakening of the U.S. dollar. These same factors previously acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin. As long as the dollar remains under pressure and investors are pricing in future rate cuts, risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, receive strong support.
Two Camps: Optimists vs. Realists
Two opposing camps have now formed in the market, and that is normal at a peak. Some analysts, whom I respect for their systematic approach, believe that after such a surge, the market needs a pause. They point out that the price has collected short sellers' stop orders and reached the monthly imbalance — a zone from which a pullback is highly likely to begin. In this scenario, the correction could be quite deep — down to the $2250–1930 zone, where the weekly inverted imbalance is located. It is there, in their view, that reliable support will be formed and an entry point for long-term positions will appear.
The second group of experts is more optimistic and expects a continuation of the uptrend. They believe that the correction in ETH will be shallower than in BTC, given the stronger performance of the ETH/BTC pair since May 2025. Movement within the monthly range of $2450–2780 looks like the base case to them.
Technical Indicators: Overheating Is Obvious
My own technical analysis confirms the bears' concerns. On the daily chart, stochastic oscillators are in the overbought zone with readings of 85.31 and 88.49. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to levels of 69.15–73.19, approaching the upper boundary beyond which cooling typically follows. This picture is typical after a sharp vertical surge and indicates that the market needs time to consolidate.
The key range for determining the further direction remains $2400–2700. Holding the price within it leaves chances for continued growth, while a break of the lower boundary would strengthen the scenario of a deeper correction.
My verdict: I do not rule out that the entire August rally could turn out to be a trap for bulls, but even in that case, the current situation creates excellent opportunities for accumulation. The market is at a bifurcation point, and I recommend not chasing the price, but building a strategy on pullbacks. Accumulate spot positions on declines so as not to be left behind in the event of a sharp upward reversal. Too much liquidity remains below the yearly lows, and if the market heads there, the subsequent recovery will be even more aggressive.