The first half of August proved to be a period of notable weakening for the Russian currency, and now the market is frozen in anticipation of September's direction. There is no consensus forecast: the range of expectations for the dollar exchange rate extends from strengthening to 82 rubles to the risk of a collapse toward the 93.5 ruble mark. Amid such uncertainty, the key drivers remain the Ministry of Finance's operations under the budget rule, the behavior of exporters, and the overall geopolitical backdrop.
Finam: Potential for Ruble Strengthening
My analysis aligns with the views of several colleagues who see opportunities for consolidation and even some strengthening of the ruble. Supporting this are high oil prices, persistently double-digit real rates on the ruble, as well as seasonal and domestic political factors. It is important to emphasize: August's weakening was largely triggered by an imbalance in the currency market, where demand from the Ministry of Finance and importers consistently exceeded supply from exporters. This created a gap between received export revenue and the actual inflow of currency to the market, which put pressure on the ruble. In less than a full month, the ruble lost nearly 6% against the dollar, while Brent continues to trade confidently above $90 per barrel.
August has historically been negative for the ruble, and the current month, it seems, will confirm this statistic. However, in September, the Ministry of Finance is likely to adjust the parameters of currency operations under the budget rule. If purchase volumes are reduced, this will become a powerful factor of support for the national currency. The parliamentary elections factor also deserves special attention: historically, in four out of six cases, the ruble strengthened after the vote, but a repeat of this scenario is not guaranteed.
BCS: Summer Uptrend Persists
On the other hand, the summer uptrend still dominates the dollar/ruble chart. The recent update of annual highs above 85 rubles, followed by a technical pullback below 83 rubles, does not change the overall picture. In September, we may well see another attempt to storm the summer peaks. The dollar will be supported by Ministry of Finance purchases, low levels of export revenue sales by exporters, and persistent geopolitical risks, which historically push market participants toward buying safe-haven instruments.
Risk Scenario: Movement Toward 93.5 Rubles
A more dramatic scenario cannot be ruled out either. If the trade balance continues to deteriorate and capital outflows intensify, we could see a rapid move toward the 93.5 ruble per dollar mark. Such a scenario would become a reality under a combination of adverse factors, including heightened sanctions pressure and a further reduction in currency inflows from exports.
My verdict: The most likely scenario appears to be broad consolidation in the range of 82–86 rubles, with attempts to test the upper boundary. However, high volatility and dependence on decisions by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank make any forecast extremely fragile. Investors should prepare for increased turbulence and closely monitor signals from the monetary authorities.