Ethereum ends August with an impressive performance, outpacing bitcoin. Over the month, ETH gained about 40%, closely approaching the key monthly imbalance zone around $2600. It was here that the price previously made a sharp gap, to which the market often returns. The analytical community is now divided: some forecast a continued rally to $2800, while others predict a correction into the $2250–1930 range.
At the time of analysis, ETH is trading near $2463, with the nearest resistance at the $2470 mark. Whether the price can hold above this level will largely determine the further trajectory of movement.
The macroeconomic factor: Fed easing as a driver
In my analysis, I link the recent momentum in ETH to changes in the quantitative easing program and a weakening U.S. dollar. These same factors previously pushed bitcoin higher as well. The local obstacle for buyers is the $2470 level. If it is surpassed, the next target will be $2800.
In the long term, positive asymmetry remains: the trend is still upward. Under the baseline scenario, growth has every chance of continuing.
Technical view: indicators signal overheating
On the daily ETH/USD chart, oscillators point to overheating after a sharp surge. The stochastic is in the overbought zone with readings of 85.31 and 88.49, while the RSI has risen to 69.15–73.19—close to the upper boundary, beyond which cooling typically follows. This picture aligns with expectations of a correction: after nearly 40% growth, the market may need a pause.
The key range remains $2400–2700. Holding within it preserves chances for a continued rise, while a decline would strengthen the scenario of a deeper drop.
In any scenario, I advise accumulating spot positions on dips to avoid being left without assets in the event of an upward reversal. The market is currently at an important crossroads, and prudent risk management will be crucial.
My conclusion: The current situation resembles a classic consolidation phase after a strong impulse. The probability of a pullback to $2250–1930 is high, but this does not negate the long-term bullish scenario. Investors should be prepared for volatility and use possible drawdowns as entry points.