After August's momentum, Bitcoin enters September on a historically strong stretch for the market. However, there is no consensus among analysts: forecasts range from a deep correction to $70,000 to an ambitious attempt to storm $100,000. This spread reflects the month's main intrigue: can the leading cryptocurrency hold its gained positions, or will it have to give back some of the gains?
I have analyzed the current market structure and identified three key scenarios, each with its own logic and price targets. The focus is on the macroeconomic backdrop, political factors, and the behavior of large holders.
Scenario #1: From $70,000 to $100,000 — a bipolar market
Stock market expert Oleg Reshetnikov notes that Bitcoin and Ethereum spent almost the entire summer in the usual low-volatility sideways range. However, in the second ten days of August, noticeable activity began. In his assessment, several factors are working in favor of the digital asset market: the approach of the final stages of the U.S. midterm elections, loud statements about the prospects of the crypto industry, increased purchases of long-term bonds as a bet on currency devaluation, as well as the approach of the seasonally strong fourth quarter from a low base.
He considers the return of institutional investors after the vacation period and the shift of long-term BTC holders to buying as an additional driver, which traditionally opens a new accumulation cycle. However, there are also risks. For the crypto market, the outcome of the elections in the context of advancing the CLARITY Act, Fed policy, the first results of Kevin Warsh's working groups in September, as well as the conflict in the Middle East, which could pressure the market through oil prices, are especially important.
In the base scenario, Reshetnikov allows for BTC to rise to $88,000. In a negative development — escalation in the Middle East, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY in the vote on September 15 — the largest cryptocurrency could decline to $70,000–72,000. A positive scenario with agreements on the region, a neutral or softer Fed, and a successful vote could push the price closer to $100,000. As for Ethereum, the second cryptocurrency will only be able to outperform Bitcoin in percentage terms in a positive scenario: in the base case, ETH will reach $2,700–2,750, in a negative case it will fall to $2,000–2,100, and in a positive case — to $3,300.
Scenario #2: Growth upon holding above $80,000
Nikolai Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Group, explains that in August the price rose noticeably amid the U.S. Treasury's announcement of increased Treasury bond buybacks and the covering of short positions after the breakout to the upside. He allows for continued growth in September, but with an important caveat.
In his assessment, further upward movement is possible only if buyers manage to break above $80,000 and, crucially, hold above that level. Under such a development, the month's target becomes the $85,000–95,000 range. Dudchenko maintains a moderately optimistic view of Bitcoin: retesting recent all-time highs in the medium term looks quite possible.
Scenario #3: Correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone
Investor and author of Qwerty Analytics, Sergei Gurdumov, after the unexpected for many impulsive growth of nearly 30% in August, expects a BTC correction in September. At the same time, he does not rule out the opposite development. According to him, the chart strongly resembles January 2023, so the option of a pullback-free rise for some time cannot be dismissed either. However, from a trading perspective, the expert considers a decline more logical.
Gurdumov expects a correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance is located — it should act as support. In his assessment, with such aggressive growth, one should not expect a deep and fast pullback. Most likely, the move will stretch over a whole month with a gradual decline. Such a scenario would confirm a suitable entry point and create reasons to look for buy trades.
My view: September promises to be volatile, and the key level will be precisely $80,000. Holding above it will open the way to updating highs, while losing this level will intensify seller pressure and accelerate the move toward the $70,000–72,000 support zone. The macroeconomic backdrop and political events in the U.S. will play a decisive role, so traders should closely monitor the calendar and be prepared for sharp reversals.