August was a month of triumph for Ethereum, which demonstrated momentum capable of surprising even the most steadfast skeptics. Over the past four weeks, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has gained about 40%, confidently outpacing bitcoin. ETH is currently trading near the $2463 mark, having approached the key resistance level at $2470. In my opinion, it is this threshold that will become the main battlefield for the "bulls" and "bears" in the short term.
The observed momentum is not accidental. ETH's growth is largely fueled by macroeconomic factors, namely expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve and the consistent weakening of the U.S. dollar. These same drivers previously pushed bitcoin higher as well, but this time Ethereum is showing greater elasticity.
Forecasts are divided: from $2800 to $1930
Analysts at the Finam financial group expect the upward trend to continue. According to their estimates, a breakout of the $2470 resistance will open a direct path to the $2800 target. In the long term, they see the preservation of positive asymmetry, which points to potential for further growth.
However, there is also an opposing point of view. Investor and author of the Qwerty Analytics channel, Sergey Gurdumov, notes that during the August rally, the price of ETH collected a significant number of stop orders from short sellers, which often precedes a correction. He allows for continued growth within the monthly imbalance, but as a base scenario, he considers a decline to the $2250–1930 zone, where the inverted weekly imbalance is located. In his opinion, this area will become reliable support and an attractive entry point for long-term positions.
Technical picture: indicators are overheated
Technical indicators on the daily chart of ETH/USD confirm the risks of a correction. The stochastic is in the overbought zone with values of 85.31 and 88.49, while the RSI has approached the upper boundary, reaching 69.15–73.19. Such a picture usually precedes a phase of market cooling.
The key range for determining the further trend remains $2400–2700. Holding the price within it will preserve the chances of continued upward movement, while a breakout of the lower boundary will strengthen the scenario of a deeper correction.
My view: The market clearly needs a pause after such a rapid surge. However, I am not inclined to dramatize the potential correction — fundamental drivers, such as expectations of a Fed rate cut, remain in force. I recommend that investors view possible drawdowns not as a threat, but as an opportunity to build up spot positions in the support zone of $2250–1930. In the long term, this could prove to be a much more advantageous entry point than current levels.