After August's surge, bitcoin enters September on a historically strong stretch for the market. However, there is no consensus on the near-term trajectory: forecasts range from a deep correction to an attempt to hold near the psychological $100,000 mark. The key intrigue of the month is whether the leading cryptocurrency can sustain its momentum or give back some of its gains.
I analyzed several scenarios from leading market experts. They all agree on one point: September will be a turning point, but the directions diverge dramatically.
Oleg Reshetnikov: scenarios from $70,000 to $100,000
The stock market expert notes that for nearly the entire summer, bitcoin and Ethereum traded in a familiar low-volatility sideways range. However, in the second decade of August, a noticeable revival began. In his assessment, several factors are aligning in favor of the digital asset market.
Among them are the approach of the final stages of the U.S. midterm elections, statements about the prospects of the crypto industry, increased purchases of long-term bonds as a play on currency devaluation, as well as the approach to a seasonally strong fourth quarter from a low base. He also considers the return of institutional investors after the vacation period and the shift of long-term BTC holders to buying as an additional driver, which traditionally opens a new accumulation cycle.
In the base scenario, the expert allows for BTC to rise to $88,000 in September. In a negative development—escalation in the Middle East, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY in the September 15 vote—the largest cryptocurrency could decline to $70,000–72,000. A positive scenario with regional agreements, a neutral or softer Fed, and a successful vote could push the price closer to $100,000.
Ethereum is assessed separately: in the base scenario, ETH reaches $2,700–2,750, in a negative scenario it falls to $2,000–2,100, and in a positive scenario it rises to $3,300.
Nikolai Dudchenko: growth if it holds above $80,000
The analyst explains that in August, the price rose noticeably amid the U.S. Treasury's announcement of increased Treasury bond buybacks and the covering of short positions after an upside breakout. He allows for continued growth in September, but with an important caveat.
Further upward movement is only possible if buyers manage to break above $80,000 and, crucially, hold above that level. In such a development, the month's target becomes the range of $85,000–95,000. The analyst maintains a moderately optimistic view on bitcoin: revisiting recent all-time highs in the medium term looks quite possible.
Sergei Gurdumov: correction toward the $72,500–67,000 zone
The investor and author of Qwerty Analytics, after the unexpected for many impulsive growth of nearly 30% in August, expects a BTC correction in September. At the same time, he does not rule out the opposite development.
According to him, the chart strongly resembles January 2023, so the option of a rally without a pullback for some time should not be dismissed. However, from a trading perspective, the expert considers a decline more logical. He expects a correction toward the $72,500–67,000 zone, where an inverted monthly imbalance is located—it should act as support. With such aggressive growth, one should not expect a deep and fast pullback. Most likely, the move will stretch over a full month with a gradual decline. Such a scenario would confirm a suitable price point and create reasons to look for buying opportunities.
My comment: The range of forecasts reflects real uncertainty: the market is in a zone where technical overbought conditions combine with powerful macroeconomic triggers. Personally, I believe the scenario of a correction followed by recovery looks more likely than a non-stop assault on $100,000—too many factors could trigger profit-taking. However, if bitcoin holds above $80,000 in the first ten days of September, the bearish scenario will quickly lose relevance.