The black gold market enters autumn with a high degree of uncertainty. After the rapid August rally, when a barrel came close to the $95 mark, a natural profit-taking began. However, the key question—where quotes will move next—remains open. My analysis of consensus forecasts from leading experts points to a wide but quite specific range: from $80 to $96 per barrel. The decisive factor will not be economics, but geopolitics—the situation in the Middle East.
Growth scenario: $96 and above
In the "bulls" camp, a position stands out according to which the August momentum can smoothly transition into September. The key condition is the lack of progress in de-escalating the conflict. The technical picture and the current supply/demand balance allow for predicting a test of the $96 level as early as the beginning of autumn. In the event of an unexpected reduction in tensions, the first support line is marked at the psychologically important level of $90. That is, even in a positive scenario, we will not see a collapse, only a correction to a strong level.
Base scenario: consolidation near $90
A more restrained, but in my view, more realistic forecast suggests fluctuations within ±10–15% of current values. This means consolidation around the $90 mark for Brent. The market, it seems, has already adapted to the constant geopolitical backdrop. Significant inventories in consumer countries act as a shock absorber, allowing for the compensation of temporary supply shortages over several months. It is this margin of safety that keeps quotes from more abrupt and chaotic movements.
Cautious forecast: range $80–90
There is also a third, more conservative view. It assumes that by the end of the third quarter, all else being equal, the price will remain in the range of $80–90 per barrel. The logic here is built on the strategy of a "war of attrition" that Washington, it seems, has chosen regarding Tehran. This somewhat reduces the likelihood of an immediate full-scale escalation, but does not completely rule it out—Iran has already voiced threats of strikes beyond the Persian Gulf. A peaceful settlement in the near term is unlikely, as the minimum demands of the parties are incompatible, which will keep supply under pressure.
My verdict: The oil market is entering a phase of high volatility, where every news headline can shift the price by several dollars. I would not advise traders to bet on a single scenario. The most likely outcome appears to be the preservation of a wide corridor with a center of gravity around $90, but any force majeure in the Strait of Hormuz will instantly rewrite these forecasts upward. The key signal for entering a position is not so much the price level, but the dynamics of changes in geopolitical risks.