Ethereum ends August with an impressive performance, outpacing Bitcoin in growth rates. Over the month, ETH gained about 40%, closely approaching the key monthly imbalance zone around $2600. It was here that the price previously made a sharp gap, to which the market often returns. Now analysts' opinions are divided: some expect a continuation of the rally to $2800, while others forecast a correction to the $2250–1930 range.
Trading is taking place near the $2463 mark, with the nearest resistance located at $2470. Whether the buyer can break through this level will determine the further trajectory—either the uptrend will continue, or the market will enter a correction.
The macroeconomic factor: the Fed's pause plays into our hands
In my analysis, the macroeconomic backdrop cannot be ignored. The recent rise in ETH is closely tied to changes in the quantitative tightening program and the weakening of the US dollar. These same factors previously provided support for Bitcoin. However, the $2470 level remains a local obstacle for optimists. If buyers can establish themselves above it, the next target will be the $2800 mark.
In the long term, I maintain a positive outlook: the risk asymmetry remains in favor of growth, and the base scenario suggests a continuation of the upward movement.
Technical picture: overheating and stop collection
August's surge in ETH turned out to be even stronger than BTC's. During this move, the price collected short sellers' stop orders and reached the monthly imbalance, from where I expect a possible decline. Nevertheless, even within the correction scenario, Ethereum could hold in the $2450–$2780 range. The ETH/BTC pair shows a turning point: since May 2025, ether has been moving more confidently than the leading cryptocurrency.
Therefore, a correction in ETH will likely be shallower than in BTC. I see a support zone around $2250–1930, where the inverted weekly imbalance is located. This would be an ideal point for accumulating long positions.
However, a bearish scenario should not be ruled out: the entire rally could turn out to be a trap for bulls, and prices could fall below yearly lows. In that case, market sentiment would be deeply depressed, which would subsequently lay the groundwork for an even more aggressive rally. In any case, I recommend accumulating spot positions on dips to avoid being left without assets in the event of an upward reversal.
Indicators signal overheating
On the daily ETH/USD chart, oscillators indicate overheating after the sharp surge. The stochastic is in the overbought zone with values of 85.31 and 88.49, while the RSI has risen to 69.15–73.19—near the upper boundary, beyond which cooling typically follows. This picture aligns with expectations of a correction among several experts: after nearly 40% growth, the market may need a pause.
The key remains the $2400–2700 range. Holding within it will preserve chances for a continued rise, while a breakdown will strengthen the scenario of a deeper decline.
My view: August's ETH momentum is impressive, but technical indicators and the monthly imbalance zone point to a high probability of consolidation. A smart investor is not chasing the price right now but is preparing liquidity to buy on a possible correction. September promises to be volatile, and it is precisely during such periods that the best entry points are formed.