After August's momentum, Bitcoin enters September on a historically strong stretch for the market. However, there is no consensus on the near-term trajectory: forecasts range from a deep correction to $70,000 to an ambitious attempt to hold near the psychological $100,000 mark. This spread reflects the month's key intrigue—whether the leading cryptocurrency can sustain its recent pace or give up some of its gains.
The key drivers shaping the move lie in the macroeconomic and political spheres. These include Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. midterm elections, fourth-quarter seasonality, and the behavior of long-term holders. Let's consider three scenarios, each with its own logic and price targets.
Oleg Reshetnikov: scenarios from $70,000 to $100,000
The stock market expert notes that Bitcoin and Ethereum spent most of the summer in a familiar low-volatility sideways range. However, in the second ten days of August, the market began to noticeably pick up. In his view, several factors are aligning in favor of digital assets: the approach of the final stages of the election race, statements about the prospects of the crypto industry in the U.S., increased purchases of long-term Treasury bonds as a bet on currency devaluation, as well as the approach of a seasonally strong fourth quarter from a low base.
He also sees the return of institutional investors after the vacation period and the shift of long-term BTC holders to buying as an additional driver, which traditionally opens a new accumulation cycle.
However, Reshetnikov also highlights a number of uncertainties. For the crypto market, the election outcome in the context of advancing the CLARITY Act, Fed policy, and the first results of Kevin Warsh's working groups in September are especially important. The conflict in the Middle East, which could pressure the U.S. market through oil prices, should not be dismissed either.
In the base scenario, the expert sees BTC rising to $88,000. In a negative development—escalation in the Middle East, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY in the September 15 vote—the largest cryptocurrency could decline to $70,000–72,000. A positive scenario with regional agreements, a neutral or softer Fed, and a successful vote could push the price closer to $100,000.
Reshetnikov also separately assessed Ethereum. According to him, the second cryptocurrency can outperform Bitcoin in percentage terms only in a positive scenario: in the base case, ETH reaches $2,700–2,750, in a negative case it falls to $2,000–2,100, and in a positive case it moves to $3,300.
Nikolai Dudchenko: growth on a close above $80,000
The analyst attributes August's surge to the U.S. Treasury's announcement of increased Treasury buybacks and the covering of short positions after the upside breakout. He allows for continued growth in September, but with an important caveat: further upside is only possible if buyers manage to move above $80,000 and, crucially, hold above that level. Under such a development, the month's target becomes the $85,000–95,000 range.
Dudchenko maintains a moderately optimistic view of Bitcoin. According to him, retesting recent all-time highs in the medium term looks quite feasible.
Sergei Gurdyumov: correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone
The investor and author of Qwerty Analytics, after the unexpected surge of nearly 30% in August, expects a BTC correction in September. At the same time, he does not rule out the opposite scenario. According to him, the chart strongly resembles January 2023, so the option of a non-retracement rally for some time cannot be dismissed either. However, from a trading perspective, the expert still considers a decline more logical.
Gurdyumov expects a correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance is located—it should act as support. In his assessment, with such aggressive growth, one should not expect a deep and fast pullback. Most likely, the move will stretch over a full month with a gradual decline. Such a scenario, he says, would confirm a suitable entry point and create reasons to look for buy setups.
My comment: September is traditionally considered a capricious month for risk assets, and the current setup is no exception. However, the combination of political catalysts and fourth-quarter seasonal strength gives bulls a real chance. The key level is precisely $80,000—holding above it opens the path to updating highs, while losing this mark would send the market into consolidation with the risk of testing $70,000. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility and not give in to emotions during sharp moves.