The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is showing impressive momentum, outpacing bitcoin. Over August, ETH gained about 40%, approaching the $2600 mark—a zone where the price previously reversed sharply downward, leaving an unfilled imbalance. This level will become the key battleground for bulls and bears at the start of autumn.
At the time of analysis, ETH is trading near $2463, with the nearest resistance at $2470. The further direction of movement largely depends on this level: either a continuation of the uptrend or a corrective pullback.
The macroeconomic factor: Fed policy as a growth driver
Among the key reasons for August's rally, I highlight changes to the quantitative easing program and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. These same macroeconomic factors previously acted as catalysts for bitcoin's growth, and they continue to fuel risk assets now. However, the $2470 level remains a local obstacle for optimists. If buyers confidently break through this level, the next target will be $2800.
In the long term, positive asymmetry persists: the trend remains upward, and the base scenario assumes continued growth.
Technical picture: indicators signal overheating
On the daily ETH/USD chart, the stochastic is in the overbought zone with readings of 85.31 and 88.49, while the RSI has risen to 69.15–73.19, approaching the upper boundary beyond which cooling typically follows. This points to a high probability of a correction after such a sharp move.
Nevertheless, holding the price above $2470 would confirm buyer strength and open the path to higher levels. The $2400–2700 range remains key: staying within it preserves chances for a continued rise, while a downside break would strengthen the scenario of a deeper decline.
Bearish scenario: stop hunting and correction
In August, ETH not only outperformed BTC in returns but also triggered a massive short squeeze, reaching the monthly imbalance. Some analysts expect a pullback from this zone. At the same time, a correction in ETH is likely to be less deep than in bitcoin: target levels lie around $2250–1930, where the inverted weekly imbalance is located. This zone will serve as support and an attractive entry point for long-term positions.
A darker scenario cannot be ruled out either, where the entire August rally turns out to be a bull trap and prices fall below yearly lows. Market sentiment in such a case would be extremely depressed, which would subsequently only intensify the aggressiveness of the next rise.
My view: In the current situation, a sensible strategy is to accumulate spot positions on possible dips, without trying to catch the perfect entry point. The market is overheated, and a short-term correction would be a healthy development, but the long-term uptrend remains intact. Investors should be prepared for volatility and not panic at the first signs of a pullback.