The commodity market enters the autumn season with high volatility: experts agree that the barrel will remain in a wide range of $80–96, but the direction of movement will be determined solely by the geopolitical agenda in the Middle East. The decisive factor will be the ability of the conflicting parties to avoid a full-scale escalation.
The recent rapid surge toward the $95 mark has been replaced by profit-taking — the market is digesting August's growth and searching for new drivers. Analysts have no unified scenario, which is telling in itself: the situation remains extremely sensitive to any external shock.
Optimistic scenario: $96 in early September
A number of experts allow for a continuation of the upward trend. August's momentum, absent de-escalation in the Middle East, could smoothly carry over into September. The technical picture and the current supply/demand balance point to a target level of $96 in early autumn. At the same time, in the event of reduced tensions, the psychologically important level of $90 will serve as key support.
However, I would note: technical levels are secondary under such conditions. The market is currently trading not so much on indicators as on news headlines — any sharp geopolitical shift will instantly rewrite the current picture.
Base scenario: consolidation near $90
A more restrained position assumes the absence of dramatic movements. Accumulated inventories in consumer countries allow for compensating a temporary supply deficit without panic over the coming months. It is this buffer that keeps quotes from sharper spikes.
In that case, the base scenario becomes fluctuations within ±10–15% of current values, i.e., around $90 per barrel of Brent. This is a comfortable range for both producers and consumers, but it is extremely unstable — any news of supply disruptions from the region could push the price beyond its limits.
Pessimistic view: $80–90 while maintaining the status quo
The most conservative estimates suggest that by the end of the third quarter, the price will remain in the $80–90 range. Here, the key role is played by the US strategy aimed at economic pressure without direct military confrontation. This somewhat reduces the likelihood of escalation but does not entirely rule it out — Iran has already stated its readiness to attack vessels beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
A swift resolution of the conflict is unlikely: the parties' minimum demands are incompatible, and the probability of agreements is extremely low. This means supply will remain constrained, which in itself will support prices at the bottom of the range.
My conclusion: the oil market this autumn is a story of how geopolitics rewrites fundamental analysis. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility and avoid building long-term forecasts based solely on technical levels. Hedging risks is becoming not a luxury, but a necessity.