August's momentum has put bitcoin in a strong position ahead of September, which is historically considered one of the most volatile months for the market. However, analysts are divided on the near-term trajectory: forecasts range from a deep correction to an attempt to hold near the psychological $100,000 mark.
The key intrigue for September is whether the leading cryptocurrency can sustain its recent pace or whether the market faces a natural pullback. In focus are Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. midterm elections, and seasonal patterns that traditionally boost activity in the fourth quarter.
Oleg Reshetnikov: three scenarios — from $70,000 to $100,000
The stock market expert notes that bitcoin and Ethereum spent almost the entire summer in a familiar low-volatility sideways range, but by late August the market began to noticeably revive. In his assessment, several factors are aligning in favor of digital assets: the approach of the final stages of the U.S. election race, statements about the prospects of the crypto industry, and increased purchases of long-term Treasury bonds, which plays into a weaker dollar.
He also considers the return of institutional investors after the vacation period and the shift of long-term BTC holders toward accumulation as an additional driver, which traditionally opens a new growth cycle.
At the same time, Reshetnikov highlights risks. Of particular importance for the crypto market are the outcome of the CLARITY Act vote, Fed decisions, and the first results of Kevin Warsh's working groups. Uncertainty is also added by the conflict in the Middle East, which could pressure the market through oil prices.
In the base scenario, the analyst allows for BTC to rise to $88,000. In a negative scenario — escalation in the Middle East, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and failure of CLARITY in the September 15 vote — the largest cryptocurrency could decline to $70,000–72,000. A positive scenario with regional agreements, softer monetary policy, and a successful vote could bring the price closer to $100,000.
As for Ethereum, in the expert's view, the second cryptocurrency will only be able to outperform bitcoin in percentage terms under a positive scenario: in the base case, ETH will reach $2,700–2,750, in a negative case — fall to $2,000–2,100, and in a positive case — reach $3,300.
Nikolai Dudchenko: growth only after holding above $80,000
The analyst from the Financial University attributes August's rise to U.S. Treasury announcements about buying back government bonds and the covering of short positions after the breakout to the upside. He allows for continued growth in September, but with an important caveat: upward movement is only possible if buyers manage to push above $80,000 and, crucially, hold above that level. Under such a development, the month's target becomes the $85,000–95,000 range.
Dudchenko maintains a moderately optimistic view on bitcoin. In his words, revisiting recent all-time highs in the medium term looks quite realistic.
Sergei Gurdumov: correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone
The investor and author of Qwerty Analytics, after the unexpected for many impulsive growth of nearly 30% in August, expects a BTC correction in September. However, he does not rule out the opposite development either.
In his words, the chart strongly resembles January 2023, so the option of continued growth without a pullback for some time cannot be dismissed. However, from a trading perspective, the expert considers a decline more logical.
Gurdumov expects a correction to the $72,500–67,000 zone, where the inverted monthly imbalance is located — it should act as support. In his assessment, with such aggressive growth, one should not expect a deep and fast pullback. Most likely, the move will stretch over a full month with a gradual decline. Such a scenario would confirm the price approaching fair values and create reasons to look for buy opportunities.
My view: the range of forecasts reflects the real uncertainty of September. Technically, the market is overheated after August's surge, and a correction to $70,000 looks natural. However, if the macroeconomic backdrop and regulatory news turn out positive, bitcoin has every chance to update its all-time high and approach the five-figure mark for the first time. The key signal is price behavior around the $80,000 level.