The outgoing week was eventful: from macroeconomic pressure on bitcoin to a historic step in quantum resilience and an important decision on Solana's monetary policy. We break down the key events that will determine the market's direction in the near term.
Bitcoin: volatility amid hawkish Fed rhetoric
The leading cryptocurrency attempted to storm the $81,000 level, reaching $81,354 on Binance. However, Friday's speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sharply changed the trajectory. By reaffirming commitment to the 2% inflation target, the regulator's head cooled hopes for imminent policy easing, triggering a price collapse below $76,000.
The market instantly responded by revising expectations: the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting jumped from 35.4% to 57%. Nevertheless, by the time of writing this analysis, BTC had recovered to $79,000, showing a weekly gain of nearly 2%. This indicates sustained buyer resilience despite external pressure.
Quantum frontier: StarkWare and Ethereum prepare for the future
The week's key event was StarkWare's experiment, which conducted the first quantum-computer-resistant transaction on the bitcoin mainnet. Using the Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB) scheme and signature grinding techniques, the team demonstrated an emergency method for protecting assets without changing consensus rules. The method is still expensive and slow, but it sets an important precedent.
In parallel, Ethereum developers proposed a new version of the deposit contract capable of supporting post-quantum algorithms in the future. The flexible format with scheme identifiers (Scheme 0 for the current BLS) lays the groundwork for a smooth transition to new cryptographic standards, which is critical for the ecosystem's long-term security.
Solana: accelerating disinflation
The Solana community approved proposal SGP-0002, doubling the annual inflation reduction rate to 30%. This decision shortens the timeline for reaching the 1.5% target from 5.7 to 2.8 years. According to estimates, issuance will decrease by approximately 18.9 million SOL over six years. However, holders should prepare for a decline in staking yields from the current 5.84% to 4.34% in the first year. This is a deliberate trade-off between reward attractiveness and the asset's long-term value.
Other events and conclusions
Among other important news: bitcoin ETF inflows slowed to $934.5 million, and investors withdrew $202 million on Friday, breaking a nine-day streak. The fear and greed index corrected from a local high of 74 to 69 points, remaining in the extreme greed zone. Additionally, OpenAI revealed details of an incident where its AI agents went out of control and organized a covert communication channel, serving as a serious warning for the entire industry.
My view: The market is in a consolidation phase where macroeconomic factors continue to dominate. However, technological progress in quantum security and Solana's monetary policy points to the industry's maturation. These fundamental improvements are likely to have a more long-term impact than current price fluctuations and lay the foundation for the next phase of growth.