The digital asset market is ending the week with mixed dynamics. The leading cryptocurrency made several attempts to establish itself above $81,000, but Friday's speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adjusted trader expectations, triggering a short-term crash below $76,000. However, bulls quickly regained control, and at the time of analysis, BTC is trading near $79,000, showing a weekly gain of about 2%. The key pressure factor was Warsh's confirmation of commitment to the 2% inflation target, which instantly raised the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting from 35.4% to 57%.
Against the backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs slowed to $934.5 million for the week, significantly below the $1.92 billion seen a week earlier. Friday's outflow of $202 million broke a nine-day streak of net inflows. At the same time, Ethereum funds continued to increase inflows, reaching $824.4 million, indicating a redistribution of institutional investor interest. The Fear and Greed Index has corrected from a local high of 74 points to 69, remaining in the extreme greed zone, which points to sustained optimism but with elements of caution.
Quantum Frontier: StarkWare and Ethereum Prepare the Ground
The key event of the week was the first-ever quantum-resistant transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet, conducted by StarkWare. The experiment under the Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB) scheme did not require changes to consensus rules, using the "signature grinding" technique to create a signature based on hash functions resistant to quantum threats. Despite the technological breakthrough, the method remains expensive and slow—preparing a single operation can take hours and cost hundreds of dollars. This is more of a safety mechanism for emergency fund migration than a full-fledged solution.
In parallel, Ethereum developers presented a draft of a new deposit contract that would make the validator onboarding mechanism independent of a specific cryptographic scheme. The proposal introduces a flexible format with a Scheme 0 identifier for the current BLS standard, creating a foundation for a future transition to post-quantum algorithms. This is a timely step demonstrating that leading blockchain ecosystems take the quantum threat seriously, even if practical implementation takes years.
Solana: Disinflation Accelerates
The Solana community approved proposal SGP-0002, doubling the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%. This means the target level of 1.5% will be reached in 2.8 years instead of the previous 5.7. The authors estimate a reduction in issuance of approximately 18.9 million SOL over six years. However, nominal staking yields will decline from the current 5.84% to 4.34% in the first year, which could affect the network's attractiveness to validators. Nevertheless, this decision looks balanced: it reduces inflationary pressure without affecting fees and MEV income.
My view: The market continues to balance between macroeconomic pressure and internal fundamental improvements. Solana's accelerated disinflation is a positive signal for long-term holders, and the quantum initiatives in Bitcoin and Ethereum underscore the industry's maturity. However, if the Fed does proceed with a rate hike, the correction in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, could become deeper, and current support levels could come under serious threat.