The first half of August proved extremely tense for the Russian currency. The dollar updated local highs, approaching 85.4 rubles, marking the highest level since late March. However, the analytical community has not reached a consensus on September dynamics: the range of forecasts varies from ruble strengthening to a panic move of the pair into the zone above 93 rubles.
The Ministry of Finance factor and the budget rule
The key driver of the ruble's weakening in August was the Ministry of Finance's operations under the budget rule. The agency actively withdrew currency from the market, creating a sustained supply deficit. Additional pressure came from ongoing geopolitical tensions, sanctions risks, and a reduced inflow of export revenue to the domestic market. Notably, even high oil prices (Brent consistently trading above $90 per barrel) failed to offset this imbalance—exporters are selling minimal volumes of currency, while demand from importers remains high.
The "Final" scenario: strengthening on the horizon
Analysts at FG "Final" suggest that in September the ruble may partially regain ground. Support could come from high real interest rates, seasonal factors, and a possible change in the parameters of the Ministry of Finance's currency operations. If purchase volumes decline, this would relieve excessive pressure on the ruble. However, the historical context is mixed: after elections, the ruble strengthened in only four out of six cases, so a repeat of the scenario is not guaranteed. "Final" expects the dollar in the range of 82–86 rubles, the euro at 94–99 rubles, and the yuan at 12.1–12.8 rubles. By year-end, the forecast is more pessimistic: around 87 rubles per dollar.
The technical view of "BCS" and the risks of "AVI Capital"
At "BCS World of Investments," they note that the dollar/ruble pair remains in an uptrend. After updating annual peaks, a technical pullback followed below 83 rubles, but in September a retest of summer highs cannot be ruled out. Ministry of Finance purchases and low export sales volumes will continue to support the dollar, while the geopolitical backdrop pushes market participants toward buying defensive instruments.
The most radical scenario is offered by "AVI Capital." The managing analyst allows for a deterioration in the trade balance and an increase in outgoing cross-border capital flows, which could trigger a sharp move of the pair to 93.5 rubles. Meanwhile, euro/dollar fluctuations are expected in a wide corridor of 1.14–1.19.
My view: The spread of forecasts reflects fundamental uncertainty. The key indicator will be the Ministry of Finance's actions in the first week of September. If the agency adjusts intervention volumes, the ruble will have a chance to consolidate in the 84–86 range. However, if current supply-demand imbalances persist, risks are skewed toward further weakening, and the scenario of a move to 90+ looks increasingly realistic for the medium term.