In autumn, the barrel will remain in a wide range of $80–96, but the key question is not the numbers, but the geopolitical trigger. My calculations and analysis of current flows show: the market is frozen in anticipation of a resolution in the Middle East, and it is this factor that will determine the direction of movement, not classic supply and demand balances.
The recent surge to $95 has already given way to profit-taking — a typical picture after a sharp rally. However, the consensus among leading experts, with whom I synchronize my models, points to high volatility. At BCS Mir Investments, they allow for a breakout to $96 in early autumn if escalation continues. The technical picture I rely on confirms this level as the nearest resistance. At the same time, in the event of de-escalation, support at the round level of $90 looks reliable — this is a zone where buying has repeatedly been triggered.
Base scenario — consolidation, but with risks
A more conservative view, which I consider the base case, assumes fluctuations within ±10–15% of current values, i.e., around $90 per barrel of Brent. Inventories in consumer countries remain sufficient to compensate for temporary supply disruptions for another couple of months. This creates a kind of "safety cushion" that keeps quotes from collapsing, but not from sharp upward spikes.
At Finam, they expect a range of $80–90 by the end of the third quarter. The logic here is simple: the United States has shifted to a strategy of "war of attrition" against Iran, exerting maximum economic pressure. This reduces the likelihood of an immediate military clash, but does not completely rule it out — Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels outside the Persian Gulf. A peaceful settlement is unlikely: the positions of the parties are irreconcilable, which means supply will remain limited.
My expert assessment: the market underestimates the duration of the current tension. Even if the $80–96 range holds, spreads and freight rates will remain volatile, creating opportunities for arbitrage. Investors should prepare for a scenario where oil becomes not just a commodity, but a tool of geopolitical pressure — and in that case, any "fair" levels could be revised within a single trading day.