The first half of August proved challenging for the Russian currency: the ruble noticeably lost ground, and now experts are making highly contradictory forecasts for September. The range of expectations is wide—from strengthening to 82 rubles per dollar to the risk of a collapse to 93.5 rubles. Key factors remain the Ministry of Finance's operations, the behavior of exporters, and the geopolitical backdrop.
By August 17, the dollar jumped to 85.4 rubles, updating highs since late March, while the euro reached 99.2 rubles—a five-month peak. Several factors put pressure on the ruble at once: the Ministry of Finance's currency purchases under the budget rule, high geopolitical tension, a reduced inflow of export revenue, and growing import volumes. Some of these risks, apparently, will carry over into September.
Finale: expecting a correction in favor of the ruble
Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, believes that next month could bring some respite for the ruble. Support may come from high oil prices, persisting real ruble rates, as well as seasonal and domestic political factors. In particular, he highlights the gap between received export revenue and actual currency sales: exporters sell a minimum, while the Ministry of Finance takes currency off the market, creating a supply shortage. In less than a month, the ruble lost nearly 6% against the dollar, while Brent confidently holds above $90 per barrel.
Potavin also notes that August has historically been negative for the ruble, and the current month will likely confirm this statistic. However, in September, the Ministry of Finance may adjust the parameters of currency operations, and if purchase volumes decrease, this will support the exchange rate. A separate factor is the parliamentary elections: historically, after voting, the ruble strengthened in four out of six cases, although a repeat of this scenario is not guaranteed. His forecast for September: dollar—82–86 rubles, euro—94–99 rubles, yuan—12.1–12.8 rubles. By year-end, he expects the dollar around 87 rubles and the euro around 101 rubles.
BCS: the dollar/ruble pair in an uptrend
Mikhail Zeltser from BCS World of Investments sees the picture differently: the dollar/ruble pair remains in a summer uptrend. Recently, it updated yearly peaks above 85 rubles, followed by a technical pullback below 83 rubles. In September, in his estimation, the rate may again test summer highs. The dollar will be supported by Ministry of Finance purchases, low volumes of currency sales by exporters, and geopolitical risks, which historically push market participants toward buying safe-haven instruments.
Alexandrov: scenario of moving to 93.5 rubles
Dmitry Alexandrov from AVI Capital allows for a darker scenario. He expects the euro/dollar pair to fluctuate in the range of 1.14–1.19, but for the ruble, he sees the risk of moving to 93.5 rubles per dollar. Such a scenario is possible if the trade balance deteriorates and outgoing cross-border capital flows intensify.
My view: the wide spread of forecasts reflects the extreme uncertainty in which the market finds itself. While the ruble is squeezed between fiscal operations and a weak inflow of export revenue, the technical picture rather points to continued consolidation in the range of 83–86 rubles. However, if the geopolitical backdrop worsens and imports continue to grow, the risks of shifting toward the upper boundary—90+—become quite real. Investors should prepare for increased volatility and not bet on a single clear-cut scenario.