Active operations by the U.S. Treasury with government bonds, as well as a coordinated intervention in the yen with the Bank of Japan, have exposed the fundamental fragility of the U.S. debt structure. These actions not only failed to stabilize the market but also accelerated the outflow of liquidity from dollar-denominated assets. Against this backdrop, the dollar is showing sustained weakness, while gold and cryptocurrencies are confidently capturing a significant share of the freed-up capital.
The experts I interviewed differ in their assessments of growth potential but are united on the main point: fundamental factors — dollar devaluation and unprecedented demand from global central banks — continue to push the precious metal higher. The range of targets for autumn is impressive: from $4,770 to $5,000 per troy ounce.
Dmitry Alexandrov's scenario: a fork between $2,400 and $12,000
Dmitry Alexandrov, head of analytical research at AVI Capital, notes that the Treasury's attempts to buy back long-term bonds and reverse the rise in yields have not yet brought tangible success. Together with the yen intervention, which prevents the sale of U.S. securities from the Japanese central bank's reserves, this has only highlighted the fragility of the U.S. debt structure, especially given the persistent budget deficit.
As a result, the dollar weakened, and gold and cryptocurrencies rose significantly. It is into these assets that a large portion of liquidity has flowed — primarily into gold, but not only.
A potential downgrade of Germany's credit rating, as warned by S&P, could attract some liquidity from German debt securities into U.S. ones. However, overall, according to the expert, this will negatively affect the perception of the government debt segment among large global investors and will also support gold.
Further, the analyst sees a fork. The first scenario is a return to normal and a long-term decline in gold to $2,300–2,400. The second is a repeat of the late 1970s and a move to $10,000–12,000 over a couple of years. The indicator will be the dynamics of global budget deficits, money supply in major currency zones, and inflation. For now, Alexandrov expects an attempt to test $4,900–5,000 by the end of autumn.
Mikhail Zeltser: overbought conditions require a correction
Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BCS Mir Investitsy, reminds that in August gold broke a multi-month downtrend. From the month's lows, the metal gained almost 20% — to $4,700.
After such a rally, the asset has become overbought, and a correction is now needed. At the same time, new highs with a target of $4,770 are possible in early autumn.
Zeltser cites the weakness of the global dollar as a factor of strength. It was caused by the U.S. Treasury's start of buying up significantly cheaper bonds. Gold and dollar rates move in opposite directions, so the weakening of the American currency works in favor of the metal.
Nikolay Dudchenko: central bank demand pushes prices up
Nikolay Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Group, links the renewed growth of gold to dollar weakness. Demand from central banks remains high, he adds.
According to the expert, there is an opinion that China is buying the metal in significantly larger volumes than official statistics reflect. Finam is generally optimistic about this asset and believes the price could continue to rise.
Dudchenko allows that in September, optimists may try to reach the level of $4,800–4,900 per troy ounce. Much here will be determined by the Fed's actions. If the U.S. regulator does not pursue a path of monetary tightening, this will support precious metal prices and push them higher.
My view: The current dynamics of gold are not just another cyclical rebound but a signal of a deep structural shift in the global financial system. Dollar weakness, fueled by the actions of the Treasury and central banks, creates an ideal environment for the growth of safe-haven assets. However, one should not forget about the risk of a correction after such a rapid rally — volatility in the coming weeks could be extreme, and entering a long position without accounting for overbought conditions is fraught with losses. Investors should view current levels as an opportunity for diversification, not for chasing short-term profits.