The first half of August proved extremely tense for the ruble: the national currency noticeably weakened, and analysts are now divided in their assessments for September. The range of forecasts is wide—from moderate strengthening to 82–86 rubles per dollar to risks of a collapse to 93.5 rubles. I break down the key scenarios and factors that will determine the dynamics.
Finam: chances of an upward rebound
Alexander Potavin from Finam Group recalls that by August 17, the dollar jumped to 85.4 rubles—a high since late March—while the euro touched 99.2 rubles, updating a five-month peak. Pressure on the ruble came from the Finance Ministry's operations under the budget rule, geopolitical tensions and sanctions risks, as well as a reduced inflow of export revenue into the domestic market amid rising import volumes.
However, Potavin allows for a corrective strengthening of the ruble in September. Support could come from high oil prices (Brent consistently above $90 per barrel), real interest rates on the ruble, and seasonal factors. The key problem, in his view, is the gap between revenue earned by exporters and its actual arrival on the market: currency sales are minimal, while the Finance Ministry takes it off the market, creating a supply shortage.
Finam's forecast for September: dollar—82–86 rubles, euro—94–99 rubles, yuan—12.1–12.8 rubles. By year-end, the dollar is expected around 87 rubles and the euro near 101 rubles.
BCS: the uptrend persists
Mikhail Zeltser from BCS World of Investments believes the dollar/ruble pair remains in a summer uptrend. The recent technical pullback below 83 rubles after updating annual highs above 85 is merely a pause. In September, a retest of summer highs is possible. The dollar will be supported by Finance Ministry purchases under the budget rule, low volumes of currency sales by exporters, and geopolitical risks, which historically push market participants toward safe-haven assets.
AVI Capital: risk of moving to 93.5 rubles
Dmitry Alexandrov from AVI Capital sees a darker scenario. He expects the euro/dollar pair to fluctuate in the range of 1.14–1.19, but for the ruble, he allows for the risk of moving to 93.5 rubles per dollar. Such an outcome is likely if the trade balance surplus deteriorates and outgoing cross-border capital flows intensify.
My view: The spread of forecasts reflects uncertainty, but the baseline scenario appears to be continued pressure on the ruble. As long as exporters do not start actively selling revenue and the Finance Ministry does not reduce purchases, the ruble will remain vulnerable to external shocks. However, high rates and oil prices are powerful anchors that will prevent the currency from plunging. Keep an eye on the Central Bank's operations and geopolitics—they will be the main triggers in September.