September in commodity markets begins with high volatility, and black gold is no exception. My analysis aligns with the assessments of leading experts: in the coming weeks, the barrel will trade in a wide range of $80–96, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region remaining the key driver. The market is frozen in anticipation, and the direction of movement will be set not by fundamental demand, but by the escalation or de-escalation of the conflict.
Last week, quotes approached the $95 mark, after which profit-taking began. This is a classic scenario after a sharp rally: traders prefer to lock in gains while uncertainty is too high. However, in my observation, the August momentum could smoothly transition into September if no diplomatic breakthrough occurs.
Ceiling at $96 and support at $90
The technical picture points to the $96 level as the nearest target at the start of autumn. This barrier looks realistic if the current backdrop persists. On the other hand, in the event of de-escalation, I expect consolidation around the round $90 mark, which will become reliable support. The market is already accustomed to this scenario: sharp spikes are followed by corrections, but no fundamental collapse occurs.
Notably, inventories in consumer countries remain sufficient to offset temporary supply disruptions. This creates a safety cushion that keeps prices from collapsing even amid negative news. Nevertheless, dramatic events, for example around Iran, could occur at any moment, and then the corridor would widen.
Base case: fluctuations around $90
My base forecast is the preservation of market balance and a flat within ±10–15% of current levels. This means Brent will fluctuate around $90, and I consider this range the most likely provided the geopolitical situation does not spiral out of control. The market has already adapted to chronic instability, and sharp shifts are unlikely to become the norm.
The United States, it seems, has shifted to a strategy of "war of attrition," exerting maximum economic pressure on Iran. This reduces the likelihood of an immediate military escalation, but it cannot be completely ruled out—Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels beyond the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, oil supply will remain constrained, as the parties' minimum demands do not align, and the chances of a diplomatic settlement are extremely low.
My expert opinion: Under such conditions, investors should prepare for increased volatility, but not for extreme movements. Inventories and market flexibility act as a shock absorber, yet any unforeseen incident could instantly push prices beyond the upper boundary of the corridor. Keep an eye on Middle East news—this is currently the main driver, overshadowing even macroeconomic statistics.