The outgoing week was eventful: the leading cryptocurrency showed volatility amid the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, StarkWare made a historic breakthrough in quantum resistance, and Solana made an important decision on monetary policy. I break down the key events and their significance for the market.
Bitcoin: a test of strength and reaction to the Fed
The leading cryptocurrency attempted to storm the $81,000 level, reaching $81,354 on Binance. However, Friday's speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sharply changed the trajectory. By reaffirming commitment to the 2% inflation target and noting that weak summer data does not indicate an improvement in the underlying trend, the regulator's head triggered a price collapse below $76,000.
The market instantly revised expectations for the September meeting: the probability of a rate hike jumped from 35.4% to 57%. Nevertheless, as of this writing, bitcoin has recovered to $79,000, gaining more than 1.5% over the day and maintaining a weekly gain of about 2%. This indicates a high resilience of the bullish sentiment despite macroeconomic pressure.
Quantum frontier: StarkWare changes the game
On August 26, StarkWare conducted the first-ever transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet resistant to attacks from quantum computers. This did not require changes to consensus rules. The experiment was implemented under the Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB) scheme proposed by product director Avihu Levy. The method, based on signature grinding, uses hash functions for additional protection that are resistant to quantum threats.
It is important to understand: this is not a panacea. The method is expensive and slow — preparing a single operation takes hours and costs hundreds of dollars. However, this is a critically important step demonstrating the viability of post-quantum asset migration without a hard fork. Ethereum also proposed a new deposit contract for post-quantum signatures, indicating the industry's systematic preparation for future threats.
Solana: accelerating disinflation
Participants in Solana's on-chain vote approved proposal SGP-0002, doubling the annual rate of inflation reduction — from 15% to 30%. The final target of 1.5% will be reached in 2.8 years instead of 5.7. This will reduce issuance by approximately 18.9 million SOL over six years. The nominal staking yield will decline from the current 5.84% to 4.34% in the first year. This is a bold step that could strengthen the asset's long-term value but will require validators to adapt to the new economic reality.
My view: The past week showed that the market is in a phase of high sensitivity to macroeconomic signals. However, the breakthrough in quantum security and Solana's decisive actions on monetary policy are fundamental events that will influence asset values in the long term, regardless of short-term fluctuations due to Fed rates.