The first half of August turned out to be extremely unsuccessful for the ruble — the Russian currency noticeably lost ground, and by the 17th the dollar jumped to 85.4 rubles, updating highs since the end of March. The euro, in turn, reached the level of 99.2 rubles — a five-month peak. Now analysts are divided in their assessments of what awaits the ruble in September: the range of forecasts extends from optimistic strengthening to 82 rubles to an alarming scenario of the dollar/ruble pair moving to 93.5.
Pressure factors have not disappeared
The weakening of the ruble in August is not an accident, but a natural result of several processes at once. A key role was played by the Ministry of Finance's operations under the budget rule, which remove currency from the market, as well as high geopolitical tension and sanctions risks. Add to this the decline in the inflow of export revenue to the domestic market and the growth in import volumes — and the picture becomes complete.
The gap between the revenue received by exporters and the actual arrival of currency on the market is especially telling. Even with high Brent oil prices above $90 per barrel, sales by exporters are minimal. As a result, demand for currency steadily exceeds supply, which is what puts pressure on the ruble. In less than a month, the Russian currency lost almost 6% against the dollar — and this is with expensive oil, which indicates structural problems rather than cyclical fluctuations.
Three scenarios: from stabilization to collapse
Strengthening scenario. Some experts admit that in September the ruble may strengthen somewhat. Support could come from high oil prices, persisting real ruble rates, as well as seasonal and domestic political factors. Historically, after elections the ruble strengthened in four cases out of six, but a repeat of this scenario is not guaranteed. The Ministry of Finance will likely adjust the parameters of currency operations — if purchase volumes are reduced, this will support the exchange rate. Forecast for the dollar is 82–86 rubles, for the euro — 94–99, for the yuan — 12.1–12.8.
Trend continuation scenario. Other analysts point out that the dollar/ruble pair remains in an uptrend. After updating annual highs above 85 rubles, a technical pullback below 83 followed, but in September a retest of summer peaks is possible. Ministry of Finance purchases, low currency sales by exporters, and geopolitical risks will continue to support the dollar.
Risk of sharp weakening. The most alarming scenario assumes a deterioration in the trade balance and an increase in outgoing cross-border capital flows. In this case, the dollar could move to 93.5 rubles. Such a development would be a signal of a deep imbalance requiring a response from the Central Bank.
My view: In current conditions, the baseline scenario looks like the ruble staying in the range of 84–87 per dollar with attempts to test local highs. However, the key risk is not so much the external environment as the behavior of exporters and the Ministry of Finance's operations. As long as these factors remain unchanged, it is premature to talk about a serious strengthening of the ruble.