The commodity market enters the autumn season with a high degree of uncertainty. After the rapid August rally, when Brent crude approached the $95 mark, a predictable profit-taking followed. The question now is whether the bullish momentum can hold or whether we face a deep correction. My analysis aligns with the assessments of leading market experts: in the coming months, prices will remain within a wide range of $80–96 per barrel, with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remaining the key driver.
BCS World of Investments scenario: growth potential to $96
Based on my calculations, the August rise has every chance of carrying over into September if the conflicting parties do not reach a sudden reconciliation. The escalation factor currently dominates over fundamental indicators. The technical picture also points to the possibility of testing the $96 level in early autumn. However, in the event of de-escalation, I expect to see strong support at the round $90 mark, where a consolidation zone will form.
AVI Capital assessment: baseline scenario — $90
I do not expect dramatic shifts, although sharp movements cannot be ruled out, especially in light of events surrounding Iran. Markets have already adapted to this backdrop, and accumulated inventories in consumer countries allow for calmly offsetting a temporary supply deficit over a couple of months. Based on this, I consider fluctuations within ±10–15% of current levels, i.e., around $90 per barrel of Brent, to be the baseline scenario. This level looks like a fair price if the current market balance is maintained.
Finam forecast: range of $80–90
By the end of the third quarter, all else being equal, I expect prices to hold within the range of $80–90 per barrel. Price behavior is now entirely determined by the situation in the Persian Gulf region. The United States, it seems, has shifted to a strategy of "attrition warfare," exerting maximum economic pressure on Iran. This somewhat reduces the likelihood of an immediate escalation, but it cannot be completely ruled out — Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels outside the Gulf.
I do not expect a peaceful resolution in the near term: the parties' minimum demands are incompatible, and the likelihood of agreements is extremely low. This means that oil supply will remain constrained. Nevertheless, existing reserves are still sufficient to keep the market from more abrupt spikes.
My conclusion: the oil market is in a state of fragile equilibrium, where the geopolitical premium will only grow. For investors, this means increased volatility, and any news from the region could trigger a move upward of $5–7 within hours. I recommend hedging positions and closely monitoring OPEC+ actions, which could become an additional lever of pressure on prices.