The first half of August proved extremely unfavorable for the Russian currency: the dollar updated multi-month highs, jumping to 85.4 rubles, while the euro reached the 99.2 mark. This dynamic forced the analytical community to revise their forecasts for September, and now the range of expectations has become truly wide—from conservative 82–86 rubles per dollar to an outright bearish scenario with the pair moving to 93.5.
Factors of pressure and support
The weakening of the ruble in August was no accident. The key driver was the Finance Ministry's operations under the budget rule, which effectively withdraw currency from the market. Combined with high geopolitical risks, a decline in export revenue inflows, and rising import volumes, this created a persistent supply deficit. Notably, even with Brent oil above $90 per barrel, the ruble lost about 6% over the month—this points to structural problems rather than temporary market conditions.
However, not everything is so clear-cut. Some experts expect a corrective strengthening of the ruble in September. High real rates on ruble-denominated instruments, the seasonal factor, and a possible reduction in the Finance Ministry's currency purchase volumes could support the national currency. Historically, September has often been positive for the ruble, but relying blindly on this statistic is not advisable.
Technical picture and risks
From a technical standpoint, the dollar/ruble pair remains in an uptrend formed over the summer months. After updating annual peaks above 85, a pullback below 83 followed, but this is more of a correction than a reversal. In the event of a retest of the highs and their breakout, the path to higher levels would be open.
The most pessimistic scenario, implying a move to 93.5 rubles, could materialize with a deterioration in the trade balance and increased capital outflows. This is not the baseline forecast, but ruling it out entirely would be a mistake—too many variables are currently in limbo.
My view: The market is at a bifurcation point. The key signal will be the actions of the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank in the first weeks of September. If the regulator manages to balance supply and demand, we will see consolidation in the 83–86 range. Otherwise, the inertia of weakening could prove stronger than optimists expect.