Commodity markets are entering the autumn season with a high degree of uncertainty. My assessment of the current situation shows that a barrel of Brent benchmark crude will settle in a wide range of $80–96, with geopolitical developments in the Middle East serving as the key driver of movement. This is not merely a speculative scenario, but the result of analyzing the supply-demand balance, taking into account accumulated strategic reserves.
Technical Analysis and Support Levels
The recent surge toward the $95 mark has given way to profit-taking, which is quite expected after such a sharp impulse. From a technical perspective, I identify the $96 level as the nearest target in early September, but only if current tensions in the region persist. Should de-escalation occur, support at the round $90 level will become critical—this is where buyers will face a test of strength.
Scenarios from Market Experts
Within the professional community, there is a consensus on the base corridor, although estimates of its boundaries vary. One leading analyst allows for a rise to $96, emphasizing that the August rally could spill over into September if the conflicting parties do not reach a reconciliation. At the same time, he does not rule out the opposite scenario of a pullback to $90, which looks quite realistic in the event of any diplomatic breakthrough.
Another expert, by contrast, highlights the market's high adaptability. Reserves in consumer countries make it possible to painlessly compensate for supply shortfalls over several months, smoothing out any price shocks. His baseline forecast is fluctuations within ±10–15% of current levels, i.e., around $90 per barrel of Brent. In my view, this is the most balanced approach, taking into account both geopolitical risks and fundamental factors.
Balance of Risks and Reserves
It is important to understand that the United States has shifted to a strategy of "war of attrition," exerting maximum economic pressure on Iran. This reduces the likelihood of an immediate escalation, but it cannot be entirely ruled out—Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, accumulated reserves continue to hold quotes back from sharper movements, creating a kind of "safety cushion."
My conclusion: the oil market remains hostage to political decisions, and any extrapolations of current trends are fragile. For investors, this means the need to hedge positions and be prepared for volatility in both directions. The $80–96 corridor is not just a forecast, but a risk map where every level matters.