The precious metals market is entering a decisive phase. While the U.S. Treasury attempts to stabilize the debt market by buying back long-term bonds, and the joint intervention with the Bank of Japan in the yen only underscores the fragility of the dollar system, gold is confidently claiming the freed-up liquidity. Investors increasingly view the metal as the main beneficiary of the current macroeconomic instability.
My contacts in analytical circles agree that the ceiling for gold prices this autumn will be significantly higher than current levels. The target range is from $4,770 to $5,000 per troy ounce in the coming months. It is important to understand: this is not about a speculative impulse, but a structural shift driven by fundamental factors.
Development scenario: from $2,400 to $12,000
One of the leading analysts I keep in touch with, Dmitry Alexandrov, notes that the U.S. Treasury's attempts to buy back long-term bonds and reverse the rise in yields have not yet yielded the desired results. Together with the yen intervention, which prevents the sale of U.S. securities from the Japanese central bank's reserves, these actions have only exposed the fragility of the U.S. debt structure, especially given the persistent budget deficit.
"As a result, the dollar weakened, and gold and cryptocurrencies rose significantly. A significant portion of liquidity has flowed into these assets—primarily into gold, but not only."
A potential downgrade of Germany's credit rating, as warned by the agency S&P, could attract some liquidity from European debt securities into U.S. ones. But overall, according to the expert, this will negatively impact the perception of the government debt segment among large global investors and will also support gold.
Alexandrov considers two scenarios. The first is a return to normal and a long-term decline in gold to $2,300–2,400. The second is a repeat of the late 1970s and a move to $10,000–12,000 within a couple of years. The indicator will be the dynamics of global budget deficits, the money supply in major currency zones, and inflation. For now, the analyst expects a test of $4,900–5,000 before the end of autumn.
Overbought conditions require a correction
Stock market expert Mikhail Zeltser reminds that in August, gold broke its multi-month downtrend. From the month's lows, the metal gained nearly 20%—up to $4,700. After such a rally, the asset became overbought, and a correction is now needed. At the same time, new highs targeting $4,770 are possible in early autumn.
"After such a rally, the asset became overbought, and a correction is now needed. At the same time, new highs targeting $4,770 are possible in early autumn."
Zeltser cites the weakness of the global dollar, caused by the U.S. Treasury's start of buying up significantly cheaper bonds, as a factor of strength. Gold and dollar rates move in opposite directions, so the weakening of the U.S. currency works in favor of the metal.
Central banks push prices higher
Analyst Nikolai Dudchenko links the renewed rise in gold to the weakening dollar. Demand from central banks remains high. Moreover, there is an opinion that China is buying the metal in significantly larger volumes than official statistics reflect. Overall, I share this optimism: the asset has every chance to continue its rise.
"According to the expert, there is an opinion that China is buying the metal in significantly larger volumes than official statistics reflect. At Finam, they generally view this asset optimistically and believe the price could continue its rise."
Dudchenko suggests that in September, optimists may try to reach the $4,800–4,900 level per troy ounce. Much here will be determined by the Fed's actions. If the U.S. regulator does not pursue monetary tightening, this will support precious metals prices and push them higher.
My verdict: Gold is at a unique bifurcation point. On one hand, technical overbought conditions require a pause. On the other, the fundamental backdrop (debt crisis, weak dollar, central bank purchases) is too strong to ignore. I expect volatility in early autumn, but with a clear upward bias. A breakout above $4,900 will be the trigger for accelerating the move toward the psychologically important level of $5,000.