The American derivatives regulator — the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — has concluded its investigation into Gabriel Perez, a former presidential administration staffer accused of using his official position for illegal gain in the political prediction market. This case has become a landmark precedent, underscoring the growing role of prediction platforms in the U.S. financial ecosystem.
According to the regulator's official order, Perez must return $107,539 in illegally obtained profits and additionally pay a civil penalty of $65,000. The total amount of financial sanctions reaches $172,539. Moreover, he is banned from participating in trading on any regulated markets for three years.
Nature of the allegations and the manipulation mechanism
The investigation established that between December 2025 and February 2026, while working as a teleprompter operator at the White House, Perez had access to closed texts of presidential speeches before their public delivery. Using this confidential information, he placed trades on the prediction platform Kalshi, whose bets are tied to the frequency of presidential mentions in public addresses. Knowing the exact content and timing of the speeches in advance, he could predict price movements on these contracts with high accuracy, which effectively constituted insider trading.
This case demonstrates that even seemingly niche prediction markets are not immune to abuse. Regulators are increasingly scrutinizing the intersection of political information and financial speculation.
My analytical perspective: This settlement is not just a routine fine. It is a clear signal to the market: the CFTC views platforms like Kalshi as full-fledged exchanges, not as "toy" venues. Investors and traders should recognize that the use of non-public information, even from such specific sources as administrative structures, will be punished to the full extent of the law. In the long term, this could lead to stricter internal policies on such platforms and increased demands for transaction transparency.