The first half of August proved extremely unsuccessful for the Russian currency: the dollar exchange rate updated its highs since late March, rising to 85.4 rubles, while the euro touched the 99.2 ruble mark. Such a sharp weakening of the ruble forced the analytical community to revise its models, and now forecasts for September show a record spread of opinions—from moderate optimism to outright negative scenarios.
The key pressure factor, as I noted earlier, remains the imbalance in the foreign exchange market. Exporters' volumes of foreign currency sales remain minimal despite high oil prices. Simultaneously, the Ministry of Finance, through the budget rule, is actively absorbing liquidity, taking currency off the market. As a result, demand consistently exceeds supply, which is what pushes the exchange rate up. Notably, in less than a month, the ruble has lost about 6% against the dollar, while Brent continues to trade confidently above $90 per barrel.
Financial scenario: betting on strengthening
Alexander Potavin, an analyst at FG Finam, believes that in September the situation could turn in favor of the ruble. Among the supporting factors are high real interest rates, the seasonal domestic political factor, and expensive oil. However, he also sees a systemic problem: the gap between received export revenue and the actual inflow of currency to the market. If the Ministry of Finance adjusts the parameters of operations under the budget rule and reduces the volume of purchases, this could provide significant support to the ruble. Finam's forecast for September: dollar—82–86 rubles, euro—94–99 rubles, yuan—12.1–12.8 rubles. By the end of the year, the dollar is expected around 87 rubles and the euro around 101 rubles.
BCS: technical picture suggests continued growth
Mikhail Zeltser from BCS Mir Investments holds a different view, noting that the dollar/ruble pair remains in an uptrend. He considers the recent pullback below 83 rubles a technical correction, after which the market may retest summer highs again. The dollar will be supported by Ministry of Finance purchases, low volumes of currency sales by exporters, and geopolitical risks, which historically push market participants toward acquiring safe-haven instruments.
Pessimistic view: risk of moving to 93.5 rubles
Dmitry Alexandrov from AVI Capital allows for a much more dramatic development of events. He forecasts fluctuations in the euro/dollar pair in the range of 1.14–1.19 and does not rule out the dollar moving to the 93.5 ruble level. Such a scenario would become reality if the trade balance deteriorates and outgoing cross-border capital flows intensify.
My comment: The spread of forecasts reflects a high degree of uncertainty caused by unconventional regulator actions and structural imbalance. The market has currently priced in a rather negative scenario, so any positive news about the normalization of Ministry of Finance operations could trigger a sharp strengthening of the ruble. However, if current trends persist, consolidation in the range of 84–88 rubles per dollar with risks of an upward breakout looks more realistic.