The black gold market enters the autumn season with a high degree of uncertainty. After a recent surge toward the $95 per barrel mark and the subsequent profit-taking, analysts agree that prices will remain in a wide range of $80–96 until the end of the quarter. However, the direction of movement will be determined not so much by fundamental supply and demand indicators, but by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Upside scenario: August momentum carries into September
In the "bull" camp, the escalation factor is highlighted as a key driver. The August rally, which pushed quotes to the psychologically important $95 level, could well continue in September if tensions in the region do not subside. The technical picture and the current news flow allow for a test of the $96 level as early as the beginning of autumn. In the event of de-escalation, the first line of support, in our estimates, will be at the round $90 level, where significant liquidity volumes are concentrated.
Base scenario: volatility around $90
A more conservative approach suggests that the market has adapted to the geopolitical backdrop and will not react to it with sharp movements. Inventories in consumer countries remain sufficient to compensate for a temporary supply deficit over the coming months. This creates a safety cushion that keeps quotes from collapsing. If the current balance is maintained, the most likely scenario appears to be consolidation within ±10–15% of current levels, i.e., fluctuations near $90 per barrel of Brent.
Lower bound: $80–90 amid a "war of attrition"
Special attention deserves the position of those who factor in a wider range of $80–90. The U.S. strategy aimed at maximum economic pressure on Iran somewhat reduces the likelihood of a direct military clash but does not rule it out entirely. Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels outside the Persian Gulf, which keeps the market on edge. At the same time, a diplomatic resolution of the conflict is unlikely: the minimum demands of the parties do not align, and the probability of agreements is extremely low. This means supply will remain constrained, and reserves will be the main deterrent against sharper price movements.
Cryptalist's comment: From a macroeconomic perspective, the current situation resembles a classic "volatility trap": the market is locked between the geopolitical premium and the fear of recession. For traders, this means that any breakouts of the range will be false until a clear signal emerges on one of these factors. I recommend adhering to a strategy of trading from the range boundaries with tight stop-losses.