In the fall of 2024, I estimate that oil prices will remain in a wide range—from $80 to $96 per barrel. The key trigger for price movement will be the situation in the Middle East, where geopolitical tensions continue to shape trader sentiment. Recently, the barrel approached $95, after which the market began to take profits amid the rapid rise. Further dynamics will depend on whether the parties can reduce the intensity of the conflict, but no one currently has a unified scenario.
Technical analysis points to $96
Within the framework of technical analysis and current market factors, I see room for a rise to $96 in early fall. The August rally could spill over into September if there is no reconciliation in the Middle East. The escalation factor remains key for further price movement. In the event of de-escalation, I expect support at the round level of $90 per barrel, which would serve as a kind of "anchor" for the market.
Base scenario: fluctuations around $90
I do not expect sharp changes, although uncertainty remains extremely high. Dramatic shifts, for example around Iran, could happen any day. At the same time, markets have noticeably grown accustomed to this backdrop: inventories in consumer countries allow for calmly compensating for supply shortfalls for another couple of months. Therefore, I am factoring in price fluctuations within ±10–15% of current levels, i.e., approximately $90 per barrel of Brent. I consider this the base scenario if the current market balance holds.
Range of $80–90: conservative forecast
A more conservative view suggests that by the end of the third quarter, prices will remain in the $80–90 per barrel range. Currently, price behavior is entirely determined by the situation in the Middle East. The United States has shifted to a strategy of "war of attrition," seeking to exert maximum economic pressure on Iran. This somewhat reduces the likelihood of an escalation, but it cannot be ruled out: Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels outside the Persian Gulf.
I do not expect a resolution of the conflict, as the parties' minimum demands do not align, and the probability of reaching an agreement is extremely low. This means that oil supply will remain constrained. At the same time, there are still sufficient reserves to smooth the situation in global markets—it is this buffer that keeps prices from more drastic movements.
My conclusion: the oil market enters fall in a state of fragile equilibrium. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility, but without extreme spikes. The key signal—any news about negotiations or, conversely, escalation—will immediately be reflected in prices. Keep your finger on the pulse of geopolitics; it is now more important than any fundamental data.